Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
143 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES
ARE STILL GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE ALSO A MAJOR
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 59.

AT 130 AM CST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AND WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MARION AND LAMAR COUNTIES.  FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WERE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES.  ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR SELMA TO BIRMINGHAM TO FORT PAYNE AND WERE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  ALTHOUGH TWO TORNADO WATCHES
COVERED ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...NO ACTIVE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT.

AS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING...IT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FROM WEST TO EAST.

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL CROSS
THE STATE LINE INTO WEST ALABAMA AROUND 3 AM CST.  WITH STRONG WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND UPWARDS...GOOD INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5...SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  THE BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS
ARE AS FOLLOWS...WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM CST...
THE BIRMINGHAM AREA AROUND 6 AM CST...AREAS ALONG A MONTGOMERY TO
ANNISTON LINE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM CST...THEN EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER INTO GEORGIA AROUND MIDDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES...POSSIBLY
UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 59.  FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING IS A
CONCERN IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
&&

.UPDATE...INCLUDED NEW TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 59 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL
6 PM CST TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEMOPOLIS TO CALERA
TO ANNISTON LINE.
&&

MBS/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-241300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(OVERNIGHT)

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA BRINGING A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE...SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

INCREASING WIND PROFILES AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES.  THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
AROUND 2AM AND BE NEAR THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA AROUND 5 AM AND THEN
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA AROUND 7AM.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 HAVING RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  A FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE REISSUED TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE SQUALL LINE TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-241330-
AUTAUGA AL-BARBOUR AL-BIBB AL-BLOUNT AL-BULLOCK AL-CALHOUN AL-
CHAMBERS AL-CHEROKEE AL-CHILTON AL-CLAY AL-CLEBURNE AL-COOSA AL-
DALLAS AL-ELMORE AL-ETOWAH AL-FAYETTE AL-GREENE AL-HALE AL-
JEFFERSON AL-LAMAR AL-LEE AL-LOWNDES AL-MACON AL-MARENGO AL-
MARION AL-MONTGOMERY AL-PERRY AL-PICKENS AL-PIKE AL-RANDOLPH AL-
RUSSELL AL-SHELBY AL-ST. CLAIR AL-SUMTER AL-TALLADEGA AL-
TALLAPOOSA AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(OVERNIGHT)

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA BRINGING A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE...SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

INCREASING WIND PROFILES AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES.  THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
AROUND 2AM AND BE NEAR THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA AROUND 5 AM AND THEN
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA AROUND 7AM.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 HAVING RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  A FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE REISSUED TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE SQUALL LINE TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.