Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
800 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

...CORRECTED FOR FLOOD WATCH...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
JUST THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE NIGHT SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN LAMAR COUNTY. EXPECT THIS CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
MARION COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.  WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS, THE BULK OF IT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ONLY BRUSH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.  THE MAIN CONCERN FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT WILL BE WHAT IS BREWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THUS, ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SHORTLY FOR CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF STORMS TO
CONTINUE ON INTO ALABAMA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES BRINGING STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THIS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO BE
AROUND 1AM-4AM WEST...4AM-8AM CENTRAL...8AM-12PM EAST.
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES....FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 6PM WEDNESDAY.
&&

KH/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-241300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(OVERNIGHT)

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA BRINGING A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE...SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

INCREASING WIND PROFILES AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES.  THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
AROUND 2AM AND BE NEAR THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA AROUND 5 AM AND THEN
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA AROUND 7AM.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 HAVING RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  A FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE REISSUED TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE SQUALL LINE TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
756 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             SULLIGENT               33.89N 88.13W
11/23/2004  1.25 IN          LAMAR              AL   SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 278 JUST WEST
            OF SULLIGENT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-241330-
AUTAUGA AL-BARBOUR AL-BIBB AL-BLOUNT AL-BULLOCK AL-CALHOUN AL-
CHAMBERS AL-CHEROKEE AL-CHILTON AL-CLAY AL-CLEBURNE AL-COOSA AL-
DALLAS AL-ELMORE AL-ETOWAH AL-FAYETTE AL-GREENE AL-HALE AL-
JEFFERSON AL-LAMAR AL-LEE AL-LOWNDES AL-MACON AL-MARENGO AL-
MARION AL-MONTGOMERY AL-PERRY AL-PICKENS AL-PIKE AL-RANDOLPH AL-
RUSSELL AL-SHELBY AL-ST. CLAIR AL-SUMTER AL-TALLADEGA AL-
TALLAPOOSA AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(OVERNIGHT)

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA BRINGING A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE...SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

INCREASING WIND PROFILES AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES.  THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
AROUND 2AM AND BE NEAR THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA AROUND 5 AM AND THEN
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA AROUND 7AM.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 HAVING RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  A FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE REISSUED TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE SQUALL LINE TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.