Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
751 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE AIRMASS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
(21Z) AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND LI VALUES RIGHT AROUND
-6. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HELP SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE. WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WARM AND MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A DRYLINE
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MON THROUGH SAT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ056-061045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NOWATA COUNTY UNTIL 545 AM
   CDT...

AT 518 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
WEST OF ELLIOT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL.