Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
245 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A NARROW AXIS OF 60 DEGREE PLUS DEWPOINT AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...FUELING ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS AREA...THEREFORE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NW
ARKANSAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
SLOWLY TRANSLATE TO THE EAST...AND THE DRYLINE TRACKS EASTWARD AS
WELL...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...PROVING A RETURN TO TRANQUIL...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT
CHILLY...SPRINGTIME WEATHER FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO
APPEAR REMARKABLY UNEVENTFUL. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD EQUATE TO A
PERIOD OF DRY AND RELATIVELY CALM WEATHER. GFS DOES TRY TO CONJURE
UP A LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH ETA DOES NOT AGREE. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING ON WEDNESDAY THE REGION SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUL   43   59   34   50  / 10   10   10   10
FSM   46   68   39   54  / 30   10   10   10
MLC   45   65   37   52  / 10   10   10   10
BVO   40   58   32   48  / 10   10   10   10
FYV   39   62   33   50  / 30   10   10   10
BYV   38   60   31   49  / 30   10   10   10
MIO   38   57   31   49  / 30   10   10   10
F10   45   60   35   51  / 10   10   10   10
HHW   50   69   40   56  / 10   10   10   10

FORECAST ID= 06

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...TORNADO THREAT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THE AREA...

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE THAT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO PAGE LINE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...UNSTABLE AIR WAS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE COOL AIR NEAR
THE GROUND AND AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING IN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS DRY LINE AND A COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MON THROUGH SAT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD ALREADY BE ACTIVELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS
OF THIS EVENT.  SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION...
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ060-064-061445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR TULSA AND CREEK COUNTIES
   UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 914 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KIEFER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA.  THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.