Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
330 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUED TO SHOW A SMALL SCALE LOW TRACKING
DOWN THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE BULGE
ON THE DRY LINE THAT IS SURGING EAST.  THE WARM FRONT REMAINS
NEARLY STALLED ACROSS PUSHMATAHA COUNTY.

SHEAR AND CAPE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL JUST
AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER.  THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN PUSHMATAHA
AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES WILL MONITORED CLOSELY FOR TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

AS THE CELLS CROSS THE FRONT AND GO DEEPER INTO THE COOL AIR THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE TOWARDS HAIL POTENTIAL.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHWEST OF THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS DIMINISHING AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...TORNADO THREAT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THE AREA...

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE THAT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO PAGE LINE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...UNSTABLE AIR WAS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE COOL AIR NEAR
THE GROUND AND AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING IN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS DRY LINE AND A COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MON THROUGH SAT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD ALREADY BE ACTIVELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS
OF THIS EVENT.  SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION...
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA