Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
118 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...TORNADO POTENTIAL IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON CAPES WILL BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT
ONLY SLOWLY NORTH AND BY 21Z IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS PUSMAHTAH COUNTY.  THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE AS CELLS PASS THROUGH THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION...
WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE STORM MOVE
FURTHER INTO THE COOL AIR.

AT 1815Z THE CELL APPROACHING PUSHMATAHA COUNTY WAS A SUPERCELL AND
HAD PRODUCED GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
STORM-SCALE ROTATION.

FORECAST ID= 8

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...TORNADO THREAT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THE AREA...

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE THAT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO PAGE LINE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...UNSTABLE AIR WAS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE COOL AIR NEAR
THE GROUND AND AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING IN THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS DRY LINE AND A COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MON THROUGH SAT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD ALREADY BE ACTIVELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS
OF THIS EVENT.  SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION...
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ060-064-061445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR TULSA AND CREEK COUNTIES
   UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 914 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KIEFER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA.  THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.