Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK AT THIS TIME WITH LARGE
PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTING INTO AR/MO.  AIRMASS OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN
AR UNDERGOING RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES IN
MID LEVELS.  WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT FOR ORGANIZED DISCRETE CELLS...HOWEVER IMPROVING
INSTABILITY AND GOOD DIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATE THREAT OF TORNADOES.  FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE SOLAR HEATING
WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR DRAMATICALLY
INCREASES BOTH AT MID AND LOW LEVELS.  THIS AREA WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGHER THREAT OF TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT.  CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
WITH TIME.

FORECAST ID= 07

.TSA...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ049...
OKZ053>076.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

IN THE WAKE OF STRONG EARLY MORNING STORMS...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A
POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MOST FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF SUPERCELLS OR STRONG MULTICELLS
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY. THESE WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL.

GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF THE
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS AND WILL PRODUCE STORMINESS WILL
HEAD OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A DAY OR TWO.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0806 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 AM    POCOLA                    OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   LE FLORE                       TREES DOWN

0515 AM    SALINA                    OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   MAYES                          TREES DOWN POWER OUT

GM

OKZ049-161430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
849 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR PUSHMATAHA COUNTY UNTIL
   930 AM CDT...

AT 849 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
WEST OF NASHOBA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF CLAYTON...CLOUDY...NASHOBA...TUSKAHOMA...KIAMICHI AND
ALBION WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 930 AM CDT. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 AM    PEA RIDGE                 AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   BENTON                         HUNDREDS OF TREES DOWNED
                                          BLOCKING MANY ROADS AND
                                          HIGHWAYS.

0600 AM    CROWDER                   OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   PITTSBURG                      TREE BLOWN DOWN

0600 AM    WESTVILLE                 OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   ADAIR                          BARN DESTROYED AND TREES
                                          DOWN

0557 AM    1 E GORE                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   SEQUOYAH                       TREE BLOWN ONTO MOONSHINE
                                          ROAD

0550 AM    LEE CREEK                 AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   CRAWFORD                       MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG
                                          HIGHWAY 220

0450 AM    MUSKOGEE                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   MUSKOGEE                       TREES BLOWN DOWN

0445 AM    CHECOTAH                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   MCINTOSH                       SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BLOWN
                                          DOWN

0430 AM    ONAPA                     OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   MCINTOSH                       SHINGLES BLOWN OFF AND OUT
                                          BUILDINGS DAMAGED. POWER
                                          LINES AND POWER POLES
                                          DOWNED. MOBLE HOME BLOWN
                                          OFF FOUNDATION.

0400 AM    2 W OKEMAH                OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   OKFUSKEE                       TREES DOWN AND OUT
                                          BUILDINGS DAMAGED

0400 AM    WELTY                     OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   OKFUSKEE                       OUT BUILDINGS DESTROYED
                                          AND TREES DOWNED

0355 AM    5 E BIXBY                 OK   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   TULSA

0300 AM    RALSTON                   OK   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   PAWNEE

XXX

OKZ054>072-162300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #392 UNTIL 600
PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

MCINTOSH

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAREMORE...EUFAULA...JAY...MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...
STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA AND WAGONER.

ARZ019>020-029-OKZ049-053-073>076-162300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #393 UNTIL 600
PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES...
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              PITTSBURG             PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...CEDARVILLE...CLAYTON...FORT
SMITH...HUGO...MCALESTER...MOUNTAINBURG...NATURAL DAM...OZARK...
POTEAU...STIGLER...VAN BUREN AND WILBURTON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 AM    4 E OKAY                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   WAGONER

0455 AM    BIG CABIN                 OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   CRAIG                          TREE DAMAGE

0418 AM    OOLOGAH                   OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   ROGERS                         SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN

SA