Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

STRONG STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL ARE BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS MORNING PRIMING THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING PROBLEMS LATER TODAY WHEN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS FORM.

MAIN DRIVING FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT.  PRECIPITAL WATERS AND INSTABILITY ARE BOTH QUITE HIGH
SO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH AS WELL.
IN ADDITION...THE ETA QPF IS QUITE ROBUST AS IS HPCS DAY 1 QPF.

THE  UPPER LOW HANGS IN THE VICINITY TOMORROW SO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  TOMORROW SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY.
HAVE SOME TEMPERATURE ISSUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DO NOT SEE THE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA GETTING SWEPT AWAY ANY TIME SOON.
THUS...LOWS WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO THE 50S AS THE GFS
MOS SUGGESTS.  WITH WARMER LOWS WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPS
ALTHOUGH DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE.

SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA TO MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER PLEASANT AND MAINLY DRY DAYS.  THE NEXT
DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT.

TUL   77   65   74   60  / 80   80   20   10
FSM   80   67   77   60  / 80   80   50   20
MLC   80   67   77   61  / 80   80   30   10
BVO   76   64   73   56  / 80   80   20   10
FYV   75   66   72   56  / 80   80   50   20
BYV   75   66   72   55  / 80   80   60   30
MKO   78   66   75   60  / 80   80   30   10
MIO   76   65   73   56  / 80   80   40   20
F10   79   66   76   60  / 80   80   20   10
HHW   82   68   79   62  / 80   80   30   10

FORECAST ID= 17

.TSA...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ049...
OKZ053>076.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   AFTER MIDNIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRISTOW...
TULSA...MIAMI LINE.  IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD SUNRISE.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
   AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BOTH MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR....INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR LONG-LIVED
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL RETURN AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE REGION
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>067-070>071-073>075-161200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
116 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #389 UNTIL 700
AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 CREEK                 MAYES
NOWATA                OKMULGEE              OSAGE
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG             PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN
ARROW...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...MCALESTER...
MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...
SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...TULSA...VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

OKZ054>056-061-160930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR...WASHINGTON...
NOWATA AND ROGERS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 328 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF BIGHEART TO JUST NORTH OF
SKIATOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
VERA...DEWEY...COPAN...NOWATA...DELAWARE... AVANT...WOLCO...
...BIGHEART...AND BARTLESVILLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
THROUGH 430 AM CDT.   WINDS UP TO 50 MILES AN HOUR AND SMALL HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.