Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

STRONG STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL ARE BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS MORNING PRIMING THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING PROBLEMS LATER TODAY WHEN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS FORM.

MAIN DRIVING FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT.  PRECIPITAL WATERS AND INSTABILITY ARE BOTH QUITE HIGH
SO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH AS WELL.
IN ADDITION...THE ETA QPF IS QUITE ROBUST AS IS HPCS DAY 1 QPF.

THE  UPPER LOW HANGS IN THE VICINITY TOMORROW SO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  TOMORROW SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY.
HAVE SOME TEMPERATURE ISSUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DO NOT SEE THE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA GETTING SWEPT AWAY ANY TIME SOON.
THUS...LOWS WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO THE 50S AS THE GFS
MOS SUGGESTS.  WITH WARMER LOWS WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPS
ALTHOUGH DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE.

SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA TO MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER PLEASANT AND MAINLY DRY DAYS.  THE NEXT
DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT.

TUL   77   65   74   60  / 80   80   20   10
FSM   80   67   77   60  / 80   80   50   20
MLC   80   67   77   61  / 80   80   30   10
BVO   76   64   73   56  / 80   80   20   10
FYV   75   66   72   56  / 80   80   50   20
BYV   75   66   72   55  / 80   80   60   30
MKO   78   66   75   60  / 80   80   30   10
MIO   76   65   73   56  / 80   80   40   20
F10   79   66   76   60  / 80   80   20   10
HHW   82   68   79   62  / 80   80   30   10

FORECAST ID= 17

.TSA...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ049...
OKZ053>076.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
   MORE CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
ACROSS POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A VINITA TO MUSKOGEE TO MCALESTER
LINE THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS STARTED LAST EVENING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND TRAVERSED OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.   THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WHICH SPAWNED THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTENOON.  THESE
STORMS MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL OR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.  SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT FIRST...BUT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF THE
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM.  THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED..

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS AND WILL PRODUCE STORMINESS WILL
HEAD OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A DAY OR TWO.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>067-070>071-073>075-161200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
116 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #389 UNTIL 700
AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 CREEK                 MAYES
NOWATA                OKMULGEE              OSAGE
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG             PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN
ARROW...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...MCALESTER...
MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...
SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...TULSA...VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

OKZ054>056-061-160930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR...WASHINGTON...
NOWATA AND ROGERS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 328 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF BIGHEART TO JUST NORTH OF
SKIATOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
VERA...DEWEY...COPAN...NOWATA...DELAWARE... AVANT...WOLCO...
...BIGHEART...AND BARTLESVILLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
THROUGH 430 AM CDT.   WINDS UP TO 50 MILES AN HOUR AND SMALL HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ058-063-068>069-072-076-161400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#390 UNTIL 900 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 DELAWARE              OTTAWA

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

LE FLORE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...CEDARVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...
MIAMI...MOUNTAINBURG...NATURAL DAM...OZARK...POTEAU...ROGERS...
SALLISAW...SILOAM SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH AND VAN
BUREN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0520 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 AM    3 WNW STIGLER             OK   58 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   HASKELL

0410 AM    BARTLESVILLE              OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   WASHINGTON                     SCATTERED DAMAGE AROUND
                                          THE WEST SIDE OF CITY.  AT
                                          LEAST 3 STRUCTURES HAVE
                                          LOST PARTS OF ROOF.  POWER
                                          OUT IN THOSE AREAS.

0350 AM    FORAKER                   OK   67 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   OSAGE

0340 AM    WYNONA                    OK   59 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   OSAGE

0335 AM    DRUMRIGHT                 OK   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   CREEK

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0552 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 AM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   0 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE
                                          AROUND CITY.

0515 AM    7 S TAHLEQUAH             OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       UTILITY LINES DOWN IN THE
                                          KEYS AREA

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT : CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0556 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 AM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE
                                          AROUND CITY.

GM