Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
220 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

LEADING EDGE OF BOW SEGMENT OVER GARFIELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES HAS
DISPLAYED A WELL-DEFINED MID-ALTITUDE RADIAL CONVERGENCE VELOCITY
SIGNATURE...INDICATIVE OF STRONG WINDS.

CURRENT SPEED PUTS LEADING EDGE OF BOW ECHO INTO WRN OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES AROUND 245 AM.

FORECAST ID = 18

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   AFTER MIDNIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRISTOW...
TULSA...MIAMI LINE.  IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD SUNRISE.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
   AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BOTH MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR....INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR LONG-LIVED
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL RETURN AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE REGION
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>067-070>071-073>075-161200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
116 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #389 UNTIL 700
AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 CREEK                 MAYES
NOWATA                OKMULGEE              OSAGE
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG             PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN
ARROW...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...MCALESTER...
MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...
SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...TULSA...VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.