Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

STRONG STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL ARE BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS MORNING PRIMING THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING PROBLEMS LATER TODAY WHEN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS FORM.

MAIN DRIVING FEATURE IS A STRONG UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT.  PRECIPITAL WATERS AND INSTABILITY ARE BOTH QUITE HIGH
SO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGH AS WELL.
IN ADDITION...THE ETA QPF IS QUITE ROBUST AS IS HPCS DAY 1 QPF.

THE  UPPER LOW HANGS IN THE VICINITY TOMORROW SO RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  TOMORROW SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY.
HAVE SOME TEMPERATURE ISSUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DO NOT SEE THE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA GETTING SWEPT AWAY ANY TIME SOON.
THUS...LOWS WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO THE 50S AS THE GFS
MOS SUGGESTS.  WITH WARMER LOWS WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPS
ALTHOUGH DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE.

SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA TO MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER PLEASANT AND MAINLY DRY DAYS.  THE NEXT
DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT.

TUL   77   65   74   60  / 80   80   20   10
FSM   80   67   77   60  / 80   80   50   20
MLC   80   67   77   61  / 80   80   30   10
BVO   76   64   73   56  / 80   80   20   10
FYV   75   66   72   56  / 80   80   50   20
BYV   75   66   72   55  / 80   80   60   30
MKO   78   66   75   60  / 80   80   30   10
MIO   76   65   73   56  / 80   80   40   20
F10   79   66   76   60  / 80   80   20   10
HHW   82   68   79   62  / 80   80   30   10

FORECAST ID= 17

.TSA...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ049...
OKZ053>076.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
   MORE CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
ACROSS POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A VINITA TO MUSKOGEE TO MCALESTER
LINE THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS STARTED LAST EVENING IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND TRAVERSED OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.   THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WHICH SPAWNED THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTENOON.  THESE
STORMS MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL OR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.  SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT FIRST...BUT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF THE
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM.  THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED..

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS AND WILL PRODUCE STORMINESS WILL
HEAD OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A DAY OR TWO.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0552 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 AM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   0 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE
                                          AROUND CITY.

0515 AM    7 S TAHLEQUAH             OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       UTILITY LINES DOWN IN THE
                                          KEYS AREA

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT : CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0556 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 AM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   CHEROKEE                       SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE
                                          AROUND CITY.

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0625 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 AM    RYE HILL                  AR   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/16/03   SEBASTIAN

0552 AM    3 W GENTRY                AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   BENTON                         CHICKEN HOUSE DAMAGED
                                          ALONG HIGHWAY 43 JUST JUST
                                          SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12
                                          INTERSECTION.

0550 AM    1 W SILOAM SPRINGS        AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   BENTON                         TREES AND TRAILERS
                                          SUSTAINED DAMAGE ON WEST
                                          SIDE OF CITY.

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0647 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0541 AM    4 E KANSAS                OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   DELAWARE                       TRAVEL TRAILERS OVERTURNED
                                          AT ROADSIDE PARK ALONG U.S.
                                          HIGHWAY 412 AT FLINT CREEK.

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0707 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0406 AM    8 ENE OKESA               OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   WASHINGTON                     DAMAGE AT BARTLESVILLE
                                          MUNICIPLE AIRPORT.--1
                                          HANGAR DESTROYED 11 PLANES
                                          DAMAGED.

GM

ARZ020-161300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
716 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 800
   AM CDT...

AT 716 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 28 MILES WEST OF LONELM TO 13 MILES WEST OF CECIL
TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRANCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.