Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 910

May 10, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2003, 12:41 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2003, 12:41 PM EDT (16:41 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2003, 2:45 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 72 counties

Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Carter County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Washington County, TN, Bland County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Norton, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Henry County, VA, Lee County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Wythe County, VA, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1148 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -107 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1374 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

043 
ACUS11 KWNS 101641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101641 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-101845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/SRN WV...NERN TN/NWRN NC AND SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101641Z - 101845Z

A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 10/18Z.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER ERN KY/FAR SWRN VA AND SRN WV AS STRONG VERTICAL
MOTION MOVES EWD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50-60 KTS/ WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...GIVEN MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL OVER NERN TN/NWRN NC...WHERE WARMER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRESENT...POSSIBLY INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONG LIVED SUPERCELL
 DEVELOPMENT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

37498429 38138315 37117921 36257962 35868317

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 4:33 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken and 45 more	87 min
May 10, 10:25 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Breckinridge, Daviess, Hancock, Henderson, McLean, Union and 1 more	2 hr
May 10, 11:12 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Greenup, Harrison, Kenton and 4 more	2 hr
May 10, 11:54 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ballard, Boone, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Henderson and 4 more	66 min
May 10, 12:00 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 5 more	5 hr
May 10, 1:20 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 19 more	6 hr
May 10, 2:04 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 5 more	86 min
May 10, 3:27 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 20 more	93 min
May 10, 3:46 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boyd, Bracken, Campbell, Fleming, Grant, Greenup and 6 more	59 min
May 10, 5:56 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Floyd, Greenup and 10 more	94 min
May 10, 6:30 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Floyd, Greenup and 11 more	6 hr
May 9, 9:45 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carteret, Craven, Duplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir and 3 more	60 min
May 10, 2:31 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Caswell, Chowan, Durham and 19 more	89 min
May 10, 3:15 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville and 11 more	6 hr
May 10, 4:46 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville and 11 more	89 min
May 10, 7:10 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare and 20 more	6 hr
May 9, 8:57 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista and 2 more	63 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.