Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 906

May 10, 200310 counties in Kentucky; 21 counties in Ohio; 10 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2003, 11:12 AM EDT for 10 counties in Kentucky; 21 counties in Ohio; 10 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2003, 11:12 AM EDT (15:12 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2003, 1:15 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 41 counties

Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Mason County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 149 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 754 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

904 
ACUS11 KWNS 101512
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101512 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-101715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...NRN KY AND WRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101512Z - 101715Z

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/VORTICITY MAX OVER IL/IND SHOULD AID IN INTENSIFICATION OF
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER FAR NRN KY/SWRN OH. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. AS SFC
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE PRESSURE
FALLS OVER NRN OH...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE
NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION APPEARS NECESSARY
FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. IF THE CONVECTION CAN BECOME ROOTED....MODERATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. 

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

39308499 39898463 39188096 38348108 38408448

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 4:33 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken and 45 more	87 min
May 10, 10:25 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Breckinridge, Daviess, Hancock, Henderson, McLean, Union and 1 more	2 hr
May 10, 11:54 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ballard, Boone, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Henderson and 4 more	66 min
May 10, 12:00 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 5 more	5 hr
May 10, 12:41 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Jackson and 13 more	2 hr
May 10, 1:20 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 19 more	6 hr
May 10, 2:04 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 5 more	86 min
May 10, 3:27 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 20 more	93 min
May 10, 3:46 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boyd, Bracken, Campbell, Fleming, Grant, Greenup and 6 more	59 min
May 10, 5:56 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Floyd, Greenup and 10 more	94 min
May 10, 6:30 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Floyd, Greenup and 11 more	6 hr
May 9, 8:57 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Athens, Hocking, Meigs	63 min
May 9, 11:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Defiance, Fulton, Hancock, Henry, Lucas and 5 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.