Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 923

May 10, 200316 counties in Kentucky; Lawrence County, Ohio; 16 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2003, 5:56 PM EDT for 16 counties in Kentucky; Lawrence County, Ohio; 16 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2003, 5:56 PM EDT (21:56 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2003, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 94 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 33 counties

Boyd County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Pike County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Lawrence County, OH, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Summers County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 343May 10, 6:30 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1311 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 674 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 115 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

891 
ACUS11 KWNS 102156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102156 
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-102330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SRN WV...AND SWRN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 339...

VALID 102156Z - 102330Z

TORNADO WATCH 339 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
KY...SRN WV...AND SWRN VA THROUGH 23Z. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION TO COVER THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. 

AT 2145Z...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IN NERN KY
WERE MOVING 280/30-35KT...GENERALLY INTO THE NW PORTION OF CURRENT
TORNADO WATCH 339. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THESE STORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NERN KY INTO SWRN WV TO NEAR RLX THROUGH 00Z. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SERN KY/FAR SWRN VA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE INFLOW AIR MASS TO THESE
STORMS AS JKL VAD PROFILE INDICATES SWLY WINDS OF 20-30KT IN THE
SFC-2KM LAYER. AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60KT WILL CONTINUE
LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING IN THE NRN
PORTION OF WW 339...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. FOR THIS
REASON...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS NERN
KY/SRN WV DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  

..BANACOS.. 05/10/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...

37258182 37348275 37538363 38728355 38638042 37458075

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 4:33 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken and 45 more	87 min
May 10, 10:25 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Breckinridge, Daviess, Hancock, Henderson, McLean, Union and 1 more	2 hr
May 10, 11:12 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Greenup, Harrison, Kenton and 4 more	2 hr
May 10, 11:54 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ballard, Boone, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Henderson and 4 more	66 min
May 10, 12:00 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 5 more	5 hr
May 10, 12:41 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Jackson and 13 more	2 hr
May 10, 1:20 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 19 more	6 hr
May 10, 2:04 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 5 more	86 min
May 10, 3:27 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 20 more	93 min
May 10, 3:46 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boyd, Bracken, Campbell, Fleming, Grant, Greenup and 6 more	59 min
May 10, 6:30 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Floyd, Greenup and 11 more	6 hr
May 9, 8:57 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Athens, Hocking, Meigs	63 min
May 9, 11:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Defiance, Fulton, Hancock, Henry, Lucas and 5 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.