Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 914
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2003, 2:31 PM EDT for 25 counties in North Carolina; 20 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2003, 2:31 PM EDT (18:31 UTC)
- Expired
- May 10, 2003, 4:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 45 counties
Alamance County, NC, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Bedford County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, Franklin County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Southampton County, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1311 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -14 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 674 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 91 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 115 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.7
- Supercell composite
- 2.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
373 ACUS11 KWNS 101832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101831 NCZ000-VAZ000-102000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN VA...NCENTRAL/NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101831Z - 102000Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SCENTRAL VA/NCENTRAL NC IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWED INITIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG PARALLEL BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION OVER SWRN VA...JUST EAST OF WW 339. AIRMASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOREHEAD CITY TO DANVILLE. MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY WEAK INHIBITION REMAINING. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED BACKED WINDS ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL VA/NCENTRAL NC WILL PROVIDE FOR LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 36128018 37368000 37367860 36617629 35257683
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 9:45 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carteret, Craven, Duplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir and 3 more | 60 min |
| May 10, 12:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Mitchell, Rockingham, Stokes and 4 more | 2 hr |
| May 10, 3:15 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville and 11 more | 6 hr |
| May 10, 4:46 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville and 11 more | 89 min |
| May 10, 7:10 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare and 20 more | 6 hr |
| May 9, 8:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista and 2 more | 63 min |
| May 10, 4:33 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alleghany, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Rockingham, Shenandoah and 3 more | 87 min |
| May 10, 1:20 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Giles, Grayson and 13 more | 6 hr |
| May 10, 3:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Giles, Grayson and 13 more | 93 min |
| May 10, 6:30 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Giles | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.