Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
159 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

CONVECTIVE ENERGY IS IN AMPLE SUPPLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE
PROCESS.  A LIMITING FACTOR TO RAINFALL COVERAGE MAY BE THE SUPPLY
OF MOISTURE IN PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON AIRMASS CONVECTION...MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT ALOFT TYPE FEATURE IN THE MIDLEVEL THETA-E/ WET BULB ZERO
FIELDS SUGGESTING A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA
00-06Z TONIGHT. DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD MEAN A MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED PATTERN AND POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  CURRENT MIN TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

WED...PERHAPS THE DRIEST DAY IN RAINFALL COVERAGE THIS WEEK.  DRY
AIR IN THE COLUMN SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROMPT AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH A 40 PERCENT POP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DROPPING BACK TO A
20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE WEST.   GUIDANCE HIGHS SUPPORT CURRENT MID
TO UPPER 80S.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
TROUGH FROM THE WEST.  A RETRENCHMENT OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ALOFT OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDER OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT AND MORE SO WITH
HEATING ON THU.  LITTLE CHANGE FROM GUIDANCE LOWS AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED. -RFG

THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE: LATEST ETA/GFS AGREE ON VORT MAX ROUNDING
TROUGH BASE THU NIGHT WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER THE WRN RAH CWA LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI.
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. NCEP ENSEMBLE/ECMWF/
UKMET SHOW THE FRONT HOLDING OVER WRN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS TRACKING NORTH ALONG IT. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS--HIGHER EAST--
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ECMWF/00Z OP GFS IMPLY AN
SOUTHEASTWARD NUDGE OF THE FRONT MON/TUE AS TROUGH TILTS MORE
POSITIVELY & FLOW ALOFT GOES A BIT MORE ANTICYCLONIC... BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO REDUCE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY. CURRENT
MAXES/MINS LOOK FINE. -GIH

.RAH...SVR TSTM WATCH 840 NWRN HALF CWA.

GIH/RFG

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE MAY OCCUR IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS.
THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND CAUSE
EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
503 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    10 N WINSTON-SALEM        NC   .75 INCH HAIL
08/05/03   FORSYTH                        DIME SIZED HAIL ON NC
                                          HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH OF
                                          GERMANTOWN REPORTED BY
                                          SKYWARN

MWS/DGS

NCZ073-074-083>085-052300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL MOVE ACROSS
RICHMOND...MONTGOMERY...STANLY...ANSON AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES THROUGH
700 PM EDT. THE STORMS WERE LOCATED EAST OF CHARLOTTE...AND WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN
PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM.

DGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
606 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0602 PM    5 W TROY                  NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/05/03   MONTGOMERY                     GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

MWS/MJB

NCZ007-052315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
619 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PERSON COUNTY
THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 619 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES
WEST OF BUSHY FORK...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROXBORO...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BUSHY FORK...
ROXBORO...SURL...MORIAH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
636 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0632 PM    10 SW ROXBORO             NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/05/03   PERSON                         QUARTER SIZED HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

MWS/MJB

NCZ074>077-084>086-088-060000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
702 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...INTENSE LIGHTNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE DEADLY LIGHTNING ACROSS
RICHMOND...LEE...HARNETT...MOORE...MONTGOMERY...CUMBERLAND...HOKE
AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. INSTEAD...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING
SKIES OR THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS
WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
UNPLUG ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND DO NOT TALK ON THE TELEPHONE UNLESS
IT IS AN  EMERGENCY. DO NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS...AUTOMOBILES CAN
PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

DGS