Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

CURRENT SURFACE HEATING AND THE ADVECTION OF UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND
DRYING SHOULD DESTABILIZE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT IN EASTERN AL WITH JET ACCELERATION AND
COLD POCKET NOTED IN AIRCRAFT DATA NEAR ATLANTA IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ENTERING THE WESTERN RAH CWA NEAR 00Z AND EXITING BY 05Z.
DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH SCATTERED IN COVERAGE....SHOULD BE
ENERGIZED BY THE DYNAMICS ALOFT THIS EVENING. POPS WILL RANGE IN THE
50-60 PERCENT RANGE MAINLY FOR THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.  LITTLE
CHANGE FROM GUIDANCE EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH COOL DRY AIR ALOFT AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENERGIZE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DRIER AIR IN THE COLUMN SHOULD MEAN A
GREATER SPACING IN CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH DRY SINKING AIR BETWEEN.
LOWER WET BULB ZEROS...GREATER DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW SIGNALS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE HAIL OR
WIND. TUE NIGHT...LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD DISSIPATE MOST CONVECTIVE
CELLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OR NO CHANCE POP.

WED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH THE GFS CONTINUING WITH A MORE
AGGRESSIVE PATTERN OF DEEP SATURATION AND LIFT.  CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS ARE FAVORED FAVORING GFS BUT COMPROMISING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
DRIER ETA.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  -RFG

WED EVENING-THU: LATEST ETA/GFS/UKMET ALL HAVE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING JUST W OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH AN 850 MB SPEED
MAX OVER ERN NC. WILL UP POPS TO 50% EAST/40% WEST... TAPERING OFF
LATE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE WRN CWA FOR THU SO WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER DIURNAL CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST & LOW CHANCE IN THE WEST.

FRI-MON: VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE ONTARIO LOW AND WAVE DROPPING
DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE WRN PLAINS RIDGE DIG THE TROUGH ENOUGH TO
CLOSE A LOW OVER E TN BY SAT. OP GFS MAY BE TOO INTENSE WITH THE LOW
BUT MOST OTHER MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH TO OUR W...
WHICH KEEPS CENTRAL NC IN A WET PATTERN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IF ANY
TO EXISTING MAINLY DIURNAL POPS. WILL STICK WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT A
CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL. -GIH

.RAH...NONE.

RFG

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-041120-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
525 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
MANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS INTENSE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IN THE
TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR THE FAYETTEVILLE AREA WILL LIKELY BE THIS
EVENING TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

NCZ021>023-038>040-073>076-083-084-086-050050-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
759 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS...

SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND
AND HEAVY RAIN... WERE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AT 755 PM. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER ALBEMARLE TO BADIN LAKE IN NORTHEAST STANLY
COUNTY... AND OVER MARTHA IN SOUTHWEST RANDOLPH COUNTY. THESE
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WERE MOVING INTO STANLY COUNTY FROM
CABARRUS COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE LOCUST...
STANFIELD... AND OAKBORO AREAS BETWEEN 810 AND 820 PM. VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR OVER STANLY COUNTY THROUGH
AROUND 900 PM.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IN A LINE
TOWARD ASHEBORO... LIBERTY... CLIMAX AND SNOW CAMP BEFORE 830 PM.
THIS FAVORED AREA FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXTEND FROM
ANSON COUNTY AND STANLY COUNTY... NORTHEAST THROUGH RANDOLPH...
MONTGOMERY... EASTERN GUILFORD... ALAMANCE... CHATHAM... LEE... AND
MOORE COUNTIES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING... VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR 30 TO 40 MINUTES...
GUSTY WIND TO 40 MPH... AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. TAKE
SHELTER INDOORS WHEN THUNDER IS HEARD.

BADGETT

NCZ007>010-023>027-040-041-075>077-083-084-050230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
925 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...

THUNDERSTORMS... SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WIND TO 40
MPH... AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH
INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT BETWEEN 930 PM AND 1030 PM. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL AFFECT MOORE... CHATHAM... ALAMANCE... ORANGE... AND
LEE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM ROBBINS AND BISCOE TO SILER
CITY... PITTSBORO... SNOW CAMP... CHAPEL HILL... AND BURLINGTON.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IF THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
3 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING ALREADY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARD THREAT THROUGH 12 AM OVER THE REGION. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TRIANGLE AREA BETWEEN 1030 PM AND
1130 PM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

BADGETT