Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Raleigh, NC

August 5, 2003Montgomery County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 5, 2003, 5:52 PM EDT for Montgomery County, North Carolina. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 5, 2003, 5:52 PM EDT (21:52 UTC)
Expired: Aug 5, 2003, 6:45 PM EDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Montgomery County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 5, 1:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 249 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -125 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 963 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

507 
WUUS52 KRAH 052152
SVRRAH
NCC123-052245-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
552 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 552 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER MOUNT GILEAD...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF TROY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TROY
  PEKIN
  CANDOR

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3535 8002 3520 8004 3517 7964 3538 7975

$$

DGS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 5, 1:59 PM EDT, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 5, 1:59 PM EDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
159 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

CONVECTIVE ENERGY IS IN AMPLE SUPPLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE
PROCESS.  A LIMITING FACTOR TO RAINFALL COVERAGE MAY BE THE SUPPLY
OF MOISTURE IN PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

IN ADDITION TO AFTERNOON AIRMASS CONVECTION...MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT ALOFT TYPE FEATURE IN THE MIDLEVEL THETA-E/ WET BULB ZERO
FIELDS SUGGESTING A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA
00-06Z TONIGHT. DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD MEAN A MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED PATTERN AND POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  CURRENT MIN TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

WED...PERHAPS THE DRIEST DAY IN RAINFALL COVERAGE THIS WEEK.  DRY
AIR IN THE COLUMN SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROMPT AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH A 40 PERCENT POP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DROPPING BACK TO A
20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE WEST.   GUIDANCE HIGHS SUPPORT CURRENT MID
TO UPPER 80S.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
TROUGH FROM THE WEST.  A RETRENCHMENT OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ALOFT OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDER OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT AND MORE SO WITH
HEATING ON THU.  LITTLE CHANGE FROM GUIDANCE LOWS AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED. -RFG

THU NIGHT THROUGH TUE: LATEST ETA/GFS AGREE ON VORT MAX ROUNDING
TROUGH BASE THU NIGHT WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER THE WRN RAH CWA LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI.
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. NCEP ENSEMBLE/ECMWF/
UKMET SHOW THE FRONT HOLDING OVER WRN CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS TRACKING NORTH ALONG IT. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS--HIGHER EAST--
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ECMWF/00Z OP GFS IMPLY AN
SOUTHEASTWARD NUDGE OF THE FRONT MON/TUE AS TROUGH TILTS MORE
POSITIVELY & FLOW ALOFT GOES A BIT MORE ANTICYCLONIC... BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO REDUCE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY. CURRENT
MAXES/MINS LOOK FINE. -GIH

.RAH...SVR TSTM WATCH 840 NWRN HALF CWA.

GIH/RFG

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 5, 5:50 AM EDT, 12 hours 2 minutes before

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE MAY OCCUR IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS.
THIS TYPE OF RAIN WILL QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND CAUSE
EXTENSIVE PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 5, 4:50 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
450 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0445 PM    10 N LEWISVILLE           NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/05/03   FORSYTH                        GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL
                                          REPORTED NEAR KING BY COUNTY
                                          911

MWS/DGS

Local storm report, Aug 5, 5:03 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
503 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    10 N WINSTON-SALEM        NC   .75 INCH HAIL
08/05/03   FORSYTH                        DIME SIZED HAIL ON NC
                                          HIGHWAY 8 SOUTH OF
                                          GERMANTOWN REPORTED BY
                                          SKYWARN

MWS/DGS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 4, 8:20 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Guilford	3 hr
Aug 4, 8:37 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Randolph, Stanly	3 hr
Aug 4, 9:15 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Montgomery	3 hr
Aug 4, 10:03 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Alamance, Randolph	2 hr
Aug 4, 10:27 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Chatham	3 hr
Aug 4, 11:12 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Guilford	2 hr
Aug 5, 12:55 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Richmond, Scotland	3 hr
Aug 5, 4:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Forsyth	44 min
Aug 5, 5:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Richmond	57 min
Aug 5, 6:21 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RAH	Montgomery	39 min
Aug 5, 6:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Moore	62 min
Aug 5, 6:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Guilford	30 min
Aug 5, 6:47 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Montgomery	118 min
Aug 5, 7:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.