Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
300 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

ONE MORE.  ETA FORECASTS LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO ROLL OUT
OF THE SWRN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODEL CLOSES OFF THE H5 LOW
NEAR MSN BY SUN MORNING WITH 180 M 12 HR HFC.  LOOKS MORE LIKE MAR
THAN MAY. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE LATEST MSAS INDICATED WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NE MO INTO E
CENTRAL KS WITH BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER W CENTRAL MO.
FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL MO ATTM.  WILL KEEP
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON IN PLACE AS A RESULT.

.STL...FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT THE ERN OZARKS

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THE AREA OF HIGH RISK IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBIA IN BOONE COUNTY TO TROY IN LINCOLN COUNTY TO
HILLSBORO IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY.  SOME CITIES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA
INCLUDE COLUMBIA...HANNIBAL...QUINCY...BOWLING GREEN...AND PARIS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN.

AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE HIGH
AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

STAY TUNED FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AFTER A REST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN GREATLY APPRECIATED DURING THE PAST
WEEK.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0335 AM    5N COLUMBIA               MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   BOONE                          REPORTED BY BOONE COUNTY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                          AGENCY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
757 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 AM    PEARL                     IL   FLOODING
05/10/03   PIKE                           ROUTE 100 CLOSED...MANY
                                          ROADS WASHED OUT

0615 AM    NEBO                      IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   PIKE                           1 INCH HAIL REPORTED
                                          BETWEEN NEBO AND PEARL