Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
307 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND THIS
IS HANDLED WELL BY MODELS.  SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED
FROM NEAR TUPELO...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO JUST NORTH OF AUBURN.  ALL
THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.   MID LEVEL CAP WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES PAST FEW DAYS...IS FORECAST TO
BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.  AS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT LIFTING NORTHWARD...THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
DIMINISHED.  HOWEVER...FLASH FLOOD MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED FOR
LATER PERIODS IF ANOTHER BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER MCS TYPE EVENT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES OUT OF MIDWEST
STATES AND INTO OHIO VALLEY.  THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER DAY OF
ACTIVE WEATHER.  UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD THURSDAY WITH 5900 METER 500MB HEIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA BY 18Z FRIDAY.   A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES.  WITH BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 ON THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND.  I WILL DROP POPS
BACK TO ISOLATED FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH NO POPS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BHM  83 69 85 68/  60 60 60 30
MGM  87 71 88 69/  40 30 50 30

.BHM...NONE.

ROSE/58

ALZ011>015-017>050-061400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
718 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

ALABAMA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS MORNING...
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SERVED BY THE
BIRMINGHAM OFFICE.  AS CONDITIONS WARM UP AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.  ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THERE IS ALSO A
CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
REST OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL MOVE THE AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH EACH DAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BE COMPLETELY NORTH OF ALABAMA
BY THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS
AREA EXPECTED ON THOSE DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

ALZ011-014-017>021-026-061115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262...

  BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...ETOWAH...
  MARION...ST CLAIR...WINSTON...

ALZ011-061345-

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
817 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

.A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 845 AM
CDT...

.WINDS 35 TO 45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORM.

AT 817 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF HACKLEBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR HACKLEBURG AND BEAR
CREEK THROUGH 845 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH IS LIKELY.  OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN
FURNITURE...TRASH CANS....OR OTHER HOUSEHOLD ITEMS COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...CAN
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3422 8819 3432 8816 3431 8764 3417 8765

ALZ011-061415-

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
846 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

.A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 915 AM
CDT...

AT 842 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF HACKLEBURG...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR HACKLEBURG AND BEAR
CREEK THROUGH 915 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS STRONG WINDS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. WINDS OF  35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS. OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...TRASH CANS....OR
OTHER HOUSEHOLD ITEMS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND.

LAT...LON 3432 8802 3415 8802 3414 8765 3430 8765

ALZ014-061445-

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
858 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

.A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL 945 AM
CDT...

AT 853 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES WEST OF GRAYSON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR GRAYSON THROUGH 945
AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS STRONG WINDS...DEADLY
LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS. OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...TRASH CANS....OR
OTHER HOUSEHOLD ITEMS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND.

LAT...LON 3430 8763 3416 8763 3419 8719 3430 8718