Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

TWO CHALLENGES REMAIN FOR THIS EVENING...FIRST IS CONVECTION AND THE
SECOND IS WIND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE BEST THREAT MAY BE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/WEAKER TSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS AREA. STILL SOME BOUNDARIES
APPARENT ON THE KMVX 88D THAT MAY INTERSECT AND PROVIDE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO
THUNDER WORDING IN ZONES. HIGH WIND WATCH ALSO LEFT OVER FROM DAY
SHIFT. APPEARS THAT BEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER SOUTHWEST ND.
SEEING QUITE A FEW GUSTS IN THAT AREA OVER 50 KNOTS. 12Z/18Z MODEL
RUNS NOT HANDLING THE SFC LOW TRACK VERY WELL. MSAS 3 HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS STILL BEST EAST OF THE LOW (NOT NORTHEAST). THIS FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS. THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW BEST PUSH OF COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE FA FROM 06Z-12Z WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AVN LOOKS TO BE DOING A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB SHOWING
THE BEST 850 MB WIND SURGE FROM WESTERN ND AND SOUTHEAST UNTIL
06Z...THEN THE AVN IS WEAKER ON 850 MB WIND SPEEDS AFTER 12Z THAN
THE ETA. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FA
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.FGF...WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ENTIRE FA.

GODON