Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Grand Forks, ND

August 16, 2002Cass County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 16, 2002, 8:25 PM CDT for Cass County, North Dakota. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 16, 2002, 8:25 PM CDT (01:25 UTC)
Expired
Aug 16, 2002, 9:15 PM CDT
In force
50 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cass County, ND

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Aug 16, 6:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 254 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2002-08-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 134 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2002-08-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 272 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
134 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-501 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
802 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
272 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
424 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

079 
WUUS53 KFGF 170125
SVRFAR
NDC017-170215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
824 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.

* AT 819 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AYR...OR ABOUT 23 MILES
  EAST OF VALLEY CITY...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  AYR AT 825 PM...
  ERIE AT 830 PM...
  ARTHUR AT 840 PM AND
  GARDNER AT 855 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4706 9766 4690 9756 4705 9684 4723 9689


7

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 16, 3:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 3:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG, FAST OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND CLOSE OFF. ALSO UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FORECAST TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT. MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. CAPES
RISE TO AROUND A 1000 J/KG THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
RESPECTABLE 330K 850 MB THETA-E AIR ADVECTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AGAIN EMPHASIZING THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SEVERE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING.

BETTER THAN A 10MB DROP FORECAST ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN
HOWEVER NEW ETA RUN BACKING OFF WITH AN 8 MB DROP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON SATURDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. STRONG PRESSURE RISES, GOOD RISE-FALL
COUPLET, RELATIVELY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR AND WINDS UP TO 50
KNOTS AT 850 MB FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA. BEST CHANCE FOR
HIGH WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA FROM NEAR
MIDNIGHT TO NOON SATURDAY. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH ALL ZONES
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MSP, DLH, AND BIS COORDINATED.

.EXTENDED...
STRONG CORE OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SQUASH
500MB RIDGE FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH PERIOD.
ABOVE REGIME WILL CIRCULATE FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHOTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING
EAST ALONG FLOW. INHERITED SCATTERED POP THREAT TUESDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH TROUGH PASSAGE STILL LOOKS FEASIBLE. BESIDES THAT
CHANCE IT APPEARS MAIN ACTION SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EAST AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPEDES SOUTHWARD PUSH. GENERAL
TRAJECTORY THROUGH PERIOD CONTINUES FROM CANADA...THUS NO BIG
WARMUPS IN SIGHT.

FGF...HIGH WIND WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ALL ZONES.
HOPPES

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 16, 9:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFTraill29 min
Aug 16, 9:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBarnes38 min
Aug 16, 9:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRansom38 min
Aug 16, 10:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFSargent42 min
Aug 16, 10:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRichland49 min
Aug 16, 10:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFCass47 min
Aug 16, 10:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRansom29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.