Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Issued

Aug 16, 2002, 9:46 PM CDT (02:46 UTC)

Expired

Aug 16, 2002, 10:30 PM CDT

In force

44 min

Issued by

NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Otter Tail County, MN

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

065 
WUUS53 KFGF 170246
SVRFAR
MNC111-170330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
946 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  OTTER TAIL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT.

* AT 944 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF PHELPS...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  AMOR AT 950 PM...
  DENT AT 955 PM...
  RICHVILLE AT 1000 PM AND
  PERHAM AT 1005 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4647 9604 4631 9592 4651 9531 4670 9545


7

NNNN

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 16, 8:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

TWO CHALLENGES REMAIN FOR THIS EVENING...FIRST IS CONVECTION AND THE
SECOND IS WIND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE BEST THREAT MAY BE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/WEAKER TSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS AREA. STILL SOME BOUNDARIES
APPARENT ON THE KMVX 88D THAT MAY INTERSECT AND PROVIDE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO
THUNDER WORDING IN ZONES. HIGH WIND WATCH ALSO LEFT OVER FROM DAY
SHIFT. APPEARS THAT BEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER SOUTHWEST ND.
SEEING QUITE A FEW GUSTS IN THAT AREA OVER 50 KNOTS. 12Z/18Z MODEL
RUNS NOT HANDLING THE SFC LOW TRACK VERY WELL. MSAS 3 HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS STILL BEST EAST OF THE LOW (NOT NORTHEAST). THIS FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS. THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW BEST PUSH OF COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE FA FROM 06Z-12Z WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AVN LOOKS TO BE DOING A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB SHOWING
THE BEST 850 MB WIND SURGE FROM WESTERN ND AND SOUTHEAST UNTIL
06Z...THEN THE AVN IS WEAKER ON 850 MB WIND SPEEDS AFTER 12Z THAN
THE ETA. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FA
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.FGF...WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ENTIRE FA.

GODON

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.