Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Issued

Aug 8, 2002, 3:36 PM CDT (20:36 UTC)

Expired

Aug 8, 2002, 4:15 PM CDT

In force

39 min

Issued by

NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Nelson County, ND

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

003 
WUUS53 KFGF 082036
SVRFAR
NDC063-082115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
336 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NELSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT.

* AT 330 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKOTA...OR ABOUT 19 MILES
  EAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  LAKOTA AT 345 PM...
  MAPES AT 355 PM AND
  WHITMAN AT 410 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4818 9841 4776 9841 4785 9790 4818 9795

77

NNNN

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 8, 3:25 PM CDT, 11 minutes earlier.

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS PRECIPITATION. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MAINLY OVER ND SIDE. KMVX HAS CLUSTER OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN DVL AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDING
ALONG W EDGE OF AREA. CURRENT MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE
LOW CENTERED IN S MB...WITH FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH ND ALONG A
DVL-JMS-MBG LINE. WHEN COMPARING MSAS DATA TO MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS...NGM AND ETA BETTER MATCH THAN AVN...WITH AVN A TAD
MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON HOW UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH AREA AND AMOUNTS OF QPF ACCOMPANYING
IT. CONSEQUENTLY...STUCK CLOSEST TO ETA TIMING...BUT UTILIZED AVN
FOR QPF COMPROMISE. WITH LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO -9 AND A GOOD
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF TROF IN E
ND...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND PARTS OF MN FOR FRI. IN
ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR E ND AND
PARTS OF NW MN UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES E
OF AREA SAT NIGHT...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN
OVER AREA FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

EXTENDED...ENSEMBLES AND 12Z AVN LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN
OPERATIONAL MRF FOR UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA. UPPER
LOW WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER WEATHER INTO THE N PLAINS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK WITH HINTS OF +4-6C TEMPERATURES AT 850MB INVADING
THE REGION. EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY DAY ON MON WITH LINGERING
ACTIVITY INTO TUE. SYSTEM SWINGS TOWARD THE NE BY MID WEEK WITH
GRADUAL WARMUP TO FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF AREA TONIGHT...AND FOR PARTS OF NW AND
WC MN FOR FRI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL OF E ND AND PARTS OF NW
AND WC MN UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.

NG

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.