Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Issued

Aug 8, 2002, 5:25 PM CDT (22:25 UTC)

Expired

Aug 8, 2002, 6:30 PM CDT

In force

65 min

Issued by

NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Polk County, MN, Grand Forks County, ND

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

954 
WUUS53 KFGF 082225
SVRFAR
MNC119-NDC035-082330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
524 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
  WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT.

* AT 521 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
  LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19
  MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS TO 20 MILES WEST OF GRAND FORKS TO
  22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 30
  MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

  MEKINOCK AT 525 PM...
  HOLMES AT 530 PM...
  THOMPSON AT 545 PM AND
  GRAND FORKS AT 555 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

WIND GUSTS TO 80MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4810 9772 4770 9759 4769 9666 4814 9698


8
NNNN

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 8, 3:25 PM CDT, 2 hours earlier.

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS PRECIPITATION. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MAINLY OVER ND SIDE. KMVX HAS CLUSTER OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN DVL AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDING
ALONG W EDGE OF AREA. CURRENT MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE
LOW CENTERED IN S MB...WITH FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH ND ALONG A
DVL-JMS-MBG LINE. WHEN COMPARING MSAS DATA TO MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS...NGM AND ETA BETTER MATCH THAN AVN...WITH AVN A TAD
MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON HOW UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH AREA AND AMOUNTS OF QPF ACCOMPANYING
IT. CONSEQUENTLY...STUCK CLOSEST TO ETA TIMING...BUT UTILIZED AVN
FOR QPF COMPROMISE. WITH LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO -9 AND A GOOD
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF TROF IN E
ND...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND PARTS OF MN FOR FRI. IN
ADDITION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR E ND AND
PARTS OF NW MN UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES E
OF AREA SAT NIGHT...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN
OVER AREA FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

EXTENDED...ENSEMBLES AND 12Z AVN LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN
OPERATIONAL MRF FOR UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA. UPPER
LOW WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER WEATHER INTO THE N PLAINS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK WITH HINTS OF +4-6C TEMPERATURES AT 850MB INVADING
THE REGION. EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY DAY ON MON WITH LINGERING
ACTIVITY INTO TUE. SYSTEM SWINGS TOWARD THE NE BY MID WEEK WITH
GRADUAL WARMUP TO FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF AREA TONIGHT...AND FOR PARTS OF NW AND
WC MN FOR FRI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL OF E ND AND PARTS OF NW
AND WC MN UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.

NG

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.