Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 9, 2002Sargent County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 9, 2002, 7:18 PM CDT for Sargent County, North Dakota. It was in force for 57 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 9, 2002, 7:18 PM CDT (00:18 UTC)
Expired: Jul 9, 2002, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Sargent County, ND

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 9, 7:43 PM CDT	Hail 0.88	Crete, ND
Jul 9, 8:10 PM CDT	Hail 1.5	Forman, ND

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1791 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1192 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 163 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 4.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

801 
WUUS53 KFGF 100018
SVRFAR
NDC081-100115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
717 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SARGENT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 715 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF CRETE...OR ABOUT 51 MILES SOUTH
  OF VALLEY CITY...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  CRETE AT 730 PM...
  COGSWELL AT 750 PM AND
  BRAMPTON AT 800 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4630 9806 4615 9821 4571 9738 4593 9716


06

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 9, 2:20 PM CDT, 4 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 2:20 PM CDT, 4 hours 58 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002

RADAR BACK IN NORMAL OPERATION. THANKS TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR
KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR US.

COORD WITH HPC/RFC ON NEW 24HR QPF.  2-3 INCH MAX AREA LOOKS REAL
GOOD IN THE GFK-FAR-BJI TRIANGLE AREA.  WILL KEEP FFA GOING ALL CWFA
THRU NOON WED.  WILL USE ETA QPF THIS PD.

SFC LOW/50H LOW OVER SRN SASK HAS ONLY BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST LAST FEW HOURS.  SFC BOUNDARY FROM SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO
WRN ND (JUST WEST OF MOT-BIS) DOWN INTO WRN SD.  BIS/MBX RADAR
SHOWING TSRA FIRING JUST AHD OF BOUNDARY FROM BTWN DVL/MOT TO JUST
EAST OF BISMARCK.  ENOUGH SFC HEATING TODAY TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MID 60S.  WOULD EXPECT LINE WILL GROW
AS IT MOVES EAST AND INTENSIFY...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SVR
WORDING IN MOST ZONES EARLY TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS COPIOUS MID AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH AHD OF 50H LOW WHICH WILL DROP
TOWARD FARGO BY 12Z WED.  LOTS OF 30H DIFFLUENCE OVER NRN RED RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH 70H VVEL.  SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE HVY
RAIN THREAT ALL CWFA...WITH FOCUS JUST EAST OF 50H LOW NR A GFK-FFM
TRACK.

RAIN WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLEARING ENTERING NRN ZONES BY AFTN.  SKIES WILL CLEAR WED
NIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CU.
WILL GO A TAD BLO FWC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WED DUE TO CLDS AND RAIN
ESPECIALLY SE ND/WCNTRL MN.

EXTENDED...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD. WILL KEEP ENTIRE EXTENDED
DRY...WITH MINIMAL CONFIDENCE OF ANY SYSTEM MAKING IT OVER RIDGE.
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF ERN ND AND NW AND WCNTRL MN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RIDDLE/KELLENBENZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland, Sargent	46 min
Jul 9, 8:27 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Sargent	6 hr
Jul 9, 11:30 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	6 hr
Jul 9, 11:40 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Traill	6 hr
Jul 10, 10:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Cass	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.