Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002

ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OF THE
YEAR FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COMES TWO DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CAN EXPECT A WET MORNING
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CREATE A SHOPPING HAZARD. A MORE
OMINOUS THREAT EXISTS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO A THEAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE MORNING STREAMER CELL SPEEDS OF AROUND 30
TO 35 MPH, WOULD BE CONCERNED OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOILS REMAIN
NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS, BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HOLDING BELOW 1.5 FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT ONLY THREAT OF
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINS TO BE IN THE PATHS OF ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY. WILL MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS WITH SEVERE
WORDING MENTIONED AREA-WIDE.

WITH 06Z SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SLIGHT EASTWARD POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW CENTER COMPARED TO FORECAST AND A PAIRED JET PATTERN
INDICATING DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE
QPF TRENDS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT AHEAD OF THE ALREADY FASTER GFS.
RAINFALL INTENSITIES ARE STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.

WITH A NEAR SOLID AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK, WILL CALL FOR HIGH
POPS OF 80 TO 100 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS. HELICITIES
COULD APPROACH 500 M2S2 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD NOON
ACCORDING TO THE RUC WITH 1500 J/KG OR GREATER CAPES, THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES NEEDS TO BE WORDED STRONGLY HERE.
FOR WESTERN SECTIONS, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE WITH
SEVERE WORDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD TRIGGER
A FEW HAILSTORMS DESPITE A GOOD DRY PUNCH ENTERING WEST TX.

WITH THE FASTER SPEED, WILL PLAN ON LESS MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE
WHEN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
WILL TRIM POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST.

OTHERWISE A WARM AND DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL RESUME AGAIN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE GFS AND NOGAPS DEPICT ANOTHER VIGOROUS
STORM SYSTEM THREATENING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY, BUT THE AIR
SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS 066/041/052/030/057 +5200
DRT 071/043/056/034/061 52-00
SAT 071/042/057/035/059 +4-00

.EWX...NONE.

18/3/PM

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
554 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY FOR THE
EASTERN-MOST AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...GONZALES...CUERO...LA GRANGE AND
HALLETTSVILLE.  A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TODAY
OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY.

A POTENT UPPER AIR SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT TO TRIGGER
THE SEVERE WEATHER.  TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
ARE THE MAJOR THREATS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD START TO DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM AROUND SUNRISE INTO THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
0836 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0835 AM    20 E MANOR                TX   FX TORNADO
12/23/02   TRAVIS                    CARS FLIPPED OVER,
                                     GAS STATION ROOF BLOWN OFF
                                     AND A HOME MISSING A ROOF.

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
0836 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0835 AM    20 E MANOR                TX   FX TORNADO
12/23/02   BASTROP                        CARS FLIPPED OVER, GAS
                                          STATION ROOF BLOWN OFF AND
                                          A HOME MISSING A ROOF.

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION TO TIMES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
0900 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0704 AM    20 E MANOR                TX   FX TORNADO
12/23/02   BASTROP                        CARS FLIPPED OVER, GAS
                                          STATION ROOF BLOWN OFF AND
                                          A HOME MISSING A ROOF.

0704 AM    JUST EAST OF MANOR        TX   TORNADO
12/23/02   TRAVIS                         1 MOBILE HOME DESTROYED
                                          POWER LINES DOWN, TREES UPROOTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
0900 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0835 AM    20 E MANOR                TX   FX TORNADO
12/23/02   TRAVIS                         CARS FLIPPED OVER, GAS
                                          STATION ROOF BLOWN OFF AND
                                          A HOME MISSING A ROOF.

0855 AM    JUST EAST OF MANOR        TX   TORNADO
12/23/02   TRAVIS                         1 MOBILE HOME DESTROYED
                                          POWER LINES DOWN, TREES UPROOTED