Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR SPI CCF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT MON SEP 9 2002

SHORT TERM...KBRO BASE REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT CONV IS BEGINNING
TO FIRE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA AND
FURTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF MEXICO.  THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY HAS NOT MOVED
VERY MUCH AND REMAINS CENTERED OVER WEBB COUNTY ATTM.  THE
MESO-ETA/ETA OUTPUT SEEMS TO INITIALIZE ON THE CIRCULATION A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH OF THE ACTUAL POSITION.  THE 12Z AVN INITIAL POSITION
OF THE FEATURE IS TOO FAR WEST.  DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE
INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE CIRCULATION...I AGREE WITH THE OVERALL
MESO-ETA/AVN TREND OF PULLING THE FEATURE S-SW...RESULTING IN
INCREASED 5H PVA AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH TROPICAL
MOISTURE VALUES (2-2.5 INCHES PWAT) OVER THE REGION THROUGH 42 HRS.
AFTER 42 HRS...THE MESO-ETA BEGINS TO DRY OUT THE REGION AS 5H
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION SETTLES SOUTHWARD
ESTABLISHING A DRIER N-WN 5H FLOW PATTERN.

THE DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH CONV CHCS TOWARDS THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A MENTION OF SLGT CHC FOR
THURS AND FRI...AS SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BOTH
DAYS.

MAV TEMPS APPEAR TO BE A BIT WARM IN COMPARISON TO MET FORECAST
TEMPS AS THE CLD COVER AND INCREASED POPS WILL LIKELY SUPRESS
AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER ETA VALUES.

EXTENDED...THE AVN/MRF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THIS SYSTEM
DRIFTING WNW TOWARDS THE TX COASTLINE BY DAYS 6-7 SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A POSSIBLE REPEAT OF FAY.  THE SITUATION IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT
AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO PULL A SURFACE FRONT INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TX WHICH COULD PULL ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE GULF
FURTHER NORTH.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGT CHC/CHC IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE.  FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE...BOY020 REPORTS WINDS VEERING THROUGH 090 AT 6 TO 10
KTS...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU 5 FT. WEAK OUTFLOW BNDRY
HAS JUST PASSED TO THE SW OF THE BUOY...SO EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO EARLIER
THINKING. EXPECT FAY REMNANT LOW TO CONTINUE SINKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD...WITH ATTENDANT FEEDER BANDS. RADAR COMPOSITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBS SHOW SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAIN NEARLY
VERTICALLY ALIGNED...AND NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY WITH A POSSIBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT. MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF FORMER T.S. FAY...SO AM LEANING TOWARD BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AM. AS FAY REMNANT LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD...
EXPECT DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN LATER ON WED...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR IN AND BACKING WINDS TOWARD THE NORTH. WWIII MODEL
INITIALIZES ABOUT 2 FT LOW...AND KEEPS FAIRLY STEADY SEAS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WILL FOLLOW MODIFIED PERSISTENCE APPROACH AND HOLD SEAS UP
FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS FETCH OF WINDS FROM THE SE...THEN INCREASING
NE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD MAINTAIN OR INCREASE THE
SEAS.

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO TT 079/089 077/090 076 70/60/60/50/40
HRL TT 079/091 078/092 077 70/60/60/50/40
MFE TT 077/092 076/093 075 70/70/70/60/40
RGC TT 077/092 076/093 075 70/70/70/60/40
SPI TT 080/086 080/086 080 70/60/60/50/40

SYNOPTIC...60/AVIATION-MARINE...62/MESO...VEGA

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH (FFA) THROUGH TUES MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

TXZ248>257-100900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
513 PM CDT MON SEP 9 2002

...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

EARLY THIS EVENING...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LAREDO IN WEBB COUNTY. THE REMNANT
OF THIS DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS MOTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.  AS THIS
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OVERALL RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY REACHING 4 TO 6 INCHES.

THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77.  THIS RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH 7
PM...WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY
77 LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THIS DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN SITUATION...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...TUNE TO YOUR LOCAL NOAA WEATHER
RADIO BROADCAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BROWNSVILLE.

SPEECE