Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
850 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2002

MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS...RADAR IMAGES...AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NORTHEAST OF COTULLA THIS
EVENING. MESOETA 700MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS PLACES 700MB LOW OVER THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND NORTH OF THE CWA NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY. RECORD TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDED A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FOR A SEABREEZE-LIKE FRONT TO OVERCOME SINKING DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FROM THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL WHICH HAS WEAKENED AS THE
CIRCULATION WITH FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAS
REACHED WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX WHERE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BROOKS COUNTY.
WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEFORE ADJUSTING ZONES BUT WILL
LIKELY LOWER POPS WEST AND INCLUDE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ZFP
EXPECTED.

.MARINE...BOY020 REPORTED A NORTHEAST WIND AT 14 TO 17 KNOTS WITH 6
FOOT SEAS.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS.  THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS BY
WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK.

SYNOPTIC...CASTILLO
AVIATION-MARINE...FLATT
MESO...WATKINS

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.