Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL AGAIN BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING IN WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ZONES AT 06Z WITH LLJ FEEDING RICH MOIST AIR AS A LINE OF CONVECTION
ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF.  EXPECT TO CLUSTERS TO MERGE INTO MCS AND PROPAGATE SEWD.
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH SFC
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF CWA THIS MORNING.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED 90KT JET ENTERING OREGON COAST ON
SOUTH SIDE OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE 70KT JET
EXTENDED EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NE.  500H LOW LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN WYOMING WITH 140M HEIGHT RISES OVER KSLC.  850H LOW
LOCATED IN NE NEW MEXICO WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THRU KTOP.
VERY HIGH DWPT AIR SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH 18 DEGREES AT KOUN WHICH
HELPED TO FUEL EARLIER STORMS AND CONTINUING STORMS.

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH UPPER FEATURES AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
BUT ALL WERE 3-5 DEGREES TOO WARM AT 850H ACROSS SW KANSAS.  SW TROF
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS ATTM TO CONTINUE NEWD WITH SUBSIDENCE
TO OCCUR BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AS RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD REINFORCE AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
OCCURRING TODAY DONT THINK IT CAN BE BROKEN UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN TRIES TO RETURN NORTH.  WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT
WEST CWA.  BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURES IN
SE COLORADO FALL IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SW TROF TO MOVE INTO ROCKIES.
THINK BOUNDARY WILL ONLY REACH MY SOUTHEAST ZONES AND WITH MODELS
POINTING TO STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY COULD SEE
MORE STORMS AGAIN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.
WILL COVER SOUTHEAST WITH LIKELY POPS BUT OPT TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
REST OF CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE STABILITY.  TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND
GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.  ON WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
RISE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE.  MODELS SHOW CONTINUING
UPSLOPE FLOW BUT EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO OCCUR OVERHEAD AND THINK
STRATUS WILL FINALLY BREAK.  WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT POP IN WEST FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION OFF EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL GO WITH TEMPS FROM MID
70S TO MID 80S WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 071/057 079/054 083 720
GCK 070/056 079/052 082 720
EHA 074/055 085/054 088 022
LBL 076/056 082/054 084 020
HYS 066/054 077/052 083 820
P28 080/060 084/057 086 850

.DDC...NONE.

COLEMAN/EKB