Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG BOTTOM SIDE OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WITH ONLY DECENT HEIGHT CHANGES IN ITS
IMMEDIATE VICINITY WITH A SIGNIFICANT ONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT BUT 700MB
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN RISEN TO +13C AT DDC. MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW WAS
JUST NORTH OF P28 WITH WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MIXING OUT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
BUT SHALLOW BOUNDARY HAS KEPT THE WARM AIR TO ITS SOUTH THUS FAR.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL AGAIN FOLLOW CLOSEST TO THE AVN AND
ETA THIS CYCLE WITH NGM AGAIN TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE FEATURES.

LATEST RUC/ADAS DATA IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AVN/ETA IN SHOWING THE
CAP WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE. CAPE
AGAIN INTO THE MID THOUSAND J/KG IN THIS AREA. WITH STRONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LATER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN
OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. AS COLD AIR SURGES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
TONIGHT, STRONG 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE AND
CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

JUST HOW FAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL GET THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES WILL BE CRITICAL IN TUESDAY'S WEATHER AND IS DIFFICULT
AT BEST TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. WITH UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND
MERGING WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM, IT MAY NOT MOVE
MUCH. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
ROCKIES. WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS THOUGH. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THE BOUNDARY/S PLACEMENT BUT
WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM GOING FORECAST FOR NOW.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND A RETURN TOWARD
NORMAL TEMPS APPEARS TO BE IN STORE. ETA AND AVN SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE BUT SOUNDINGS ARE MORE STABLE AND
WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TODAY/S EXTENDED IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY
7/00Z.  THIS LEAVES EASTERN HALF OF DDC CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
THEREAFTER, FROM APPROXIMATELY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  ONE COOL POOL
OF AIR AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB SHOWING UP ON MRF AND ECMWF LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SHORT WAVES CROSSING EASTERN CWA.  THEN
STICK WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH SAT-MON PERIOD AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING INTO 90S AND SHORT WAVES SCOOTING NW TO SE
THROUGH REGION COULD EASILY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL
SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/072 055/080 054 533
GCK 055/070 054/081 052 533
EHA 055/074 055/085 |054 333
LBL 057/073 055/083 053 333
HYS 054/066 053/078 052 522
P28 064/077 061/081 057 533

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/BURKE