Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

WL ALLOW CURR FCST TO CONTINUE UN-ALTERED. WL HOLD FFA AS IS. WL UPD
ALL STATEMENTS TO REFRESH WORDING...BUT REST PER MORNING DISC:

********************************************************************

SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CTP VAD WIND PROFILE IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE
LOW-LVL JET HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 35 KTS AT 5 KFT. MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE LOW LEVEL JET TO BE NEAR 40 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THRU THE
NIGHT. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AND LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NORTHWARD
MOVING STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN A QUICK INCH OR
2 OF RAIN THRU EARLY MORNING AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

LATER TODAY...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
FORCING WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING...IN THE FORM OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH PWAT'S OVER 1.5 INCHES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL CAPES PROGGED AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE RESULT WILL BE A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN AND WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. MID-LVL WINDS
AROUND 35 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...BUT THINK THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL
BE FROM FLOODING. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER FOR THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A MORNING SHOWER POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST... THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLTY NEXT WEEK AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST.

.CTP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL COUNTIES.

MSE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-222100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH TODAY'S THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS. THAT MUCH RAIN IN SUCH A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS
nAND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DANGELO