Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CTP VAD WIND PROFILE IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE
LOW-LVL JET HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 35 KTS AT 5 KFT. MODELS ARE
PROGGING THE LOW LEVEL JET TO BE NEAR 40 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THRU THE
NIGHT. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AND LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NORTHWARD
MOVING STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN A QUICK INCH OR
2 OF RAIN THRU EARLY MORNING AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

LATER TODAY...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
FORCING WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL PA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING...IN THE FORM OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH PWAT'S OVER 1.5 INCHES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL CAPES PROGGED AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE RESULT WILL BE A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN AND WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. MID-LVL WINDS
AROUND 35 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...BUT THINK THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL
BE FROM FLOODING. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER FOR THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A MORNING SHOWER POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST... THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHC OF MAINLY AFTER=NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST.

.CTP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL COUNTIES.

MSE