Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1240 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

RADAR LIT UP AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN LWR SUSQ HAS ALREADY HELPED A
FEW STORMS GROW TO BE MARGINALLY SVR. DWPTS IN THE 50S NOW MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO PA FM WEST AND FINE-LINE ON WESTERN EDGE OF RDR
ECHOES PROBABLY DENOTES THE COLD FRONT.

TROUBLE LIES TO THE SW...WHERE IR AND REGIONAL RDRS SHOW A
DEVELOPING WAVE RIDING POLEWARD ALONG THE CD FNT. NEAR TERM GUID NOW
ALL AGREE THAT THIS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE RAFL/FF POTENTIAL...ESP
ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF FA - NOT JUST THRU THE NIGHT...BUT ALSO
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AS WELL. AM CONSIDERING EXTENDING FFA FOR ERN
PORTION OF CWA INTO SATURDAY EVE. OTHERWISE...WL INCLUDE TIMING TO
CUT OFF SHRA IN WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LINGER THRU OR EVEN JUST
AFT NOONTIME IN CENTRAL COS. ERN PA...TIMING UNNECESSARY FOR
SAT...AS IT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL DAY LIKLIHOOD. SUNDAY DRIER THAN OTHER
DAYS.

XTNDD: MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO WITH CUT-OFF LOW UNDER
OTHERWISE WIDE/FLAT RIDGE AT 5H. TREND LAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN TO
PUSH THE CUTOFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. CURR FCST IS HEADED THIS
WAY...WITH CHC SHRA EVERY DAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
A FURTHER RETROGRESSION WWD WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF ALLOWING US TO
GET WARMER/MILDER THAN CURR FCST...BUT KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN GOING.

.CTP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...TONIGHT...ALL BUT FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

DANGELO

PAZ028-036-050>053-056>059-063>066-222300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

LEBANON...MONTOUR...NORTHUMBERLAND...JUNIATA...PERRY...FRANKLIN...
DAUPHIN...LANCASTER...CUMBERLAND...ADAMS...SCHUYLKILL...YORK...
COLUMBIA AND SNYDER.

LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY. THESE STORMS ALSO HAVE THE HISTORY OF TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS..LARGE HAIL..AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAIN FLOODS ROADS QUICKLY SO DONT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

ROGOWSKI/LAMBERT