Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

RUNNING WAY BEHIND THIS MORNING.  HAVE ISSUED UPDATED ZONES TWICE...
ONCE TO UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL NORTH AND LIKELY SOUTH AND ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES...AND SECOND TO HEADLINE THE NEW
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS LESS WORKED OVER...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
THE BIGGEST THREAT IN THE NORTH.  SEVERE HAIL LOOKS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

DID NOT TOUCH SECOND PERIOD AS TIMING OF DRYLINE STILL NOT CERTAIN.
MAY PROLONG SEVERE...HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES WITH FUTURE UPDATES IF NEEDED.

FCSTID = 19

.TUL...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY ALL ZONES.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY ALL ZONES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1220 PM    4 S KEOTA                 OK    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   HASKELL                         BARNS DESTROYED...POWER
                                           LINES DOWN... AND
                                           NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
                                           ALONG HWY 26 BETWEEN
                                           MCCURTAIN AND KEOTA.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMAAND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL 4 PM...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL 600 PM...

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT
TO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ACT AS SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
OF THE POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE...NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN THE POSSSIBILITY OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.  IN ADDITION...THE PROLONGED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...INCREASING
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
SHIFT TO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.
THE DRYLINE WILL BE EAST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MORNING THUS ENDING
THE SEVERE THREAT OVER ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS.  SPOTTER GROUPS
NOT ALREADY ACTIVATED SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION AT ANYTIME THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 PM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    8 S PRAIRIE GROVE         AR    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   WASHINGTON                      HOUSE DESTROYED AND
                                           NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0205 PM    SPRINGDALE                AR    1 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   WASHINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 PM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    8 S PRAIRIE GROVE         AR    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   WASHINGTON                      HOUSE DESTROYED AND
                                           NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0205 PM    SPRINGDALE                AR    1 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   WASHINGTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

OKZ054>068-070-071-073-042015-

TORNADO WATCH 208 IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN

EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
   CHEROKEE       CREEK         CRAIG            DELAWARE
   MAYES          MCINTOSH      MUSKOGEE         NOWATA
   OKFUSKEE       OKMULGEE      OSAGE            OTTAWA
   PAWNEE         PITTSBURG     ROGERS           TULSA
   WAGONER        WASHINGTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

OKZ054>068-070-071-073-042015-

TORNADO WATCH 208 IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN

EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
   CHEROKEE       CREEK         CRAIG            DELAWARE
   MAYES          MCINTOSH      MUSKOGEE         NOWATA
   OKFUSKEE       OKMULGEE      OSAGE            OTTAWA
   PAWNEE         PITTSBURG     ROGERS           TULSA
   WAGONER        WASHINGTON

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-069-072-074>076-042015-
TORNADO WATCH 210 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN

EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
   ADAIR          CHOCTAW          HASKELL          LATIMER
   LE FLORE       MCCURTAIN        PUSHMATAHA       SEQUOYAH

NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
   BENTON         CARROLL          CRAWFORD         FRANKLIN
   MADISON        SEBASTIAN        WASHINGTON