Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

RUNNING WAY BEHIND THIS MORNING.  HAVE ISSUED UPDATED ZONES TWICE...
ONCE TO UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL NORTH AND LIKELY SOUTH AND ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES...AND SECOND TO HEADLINE THE NEW
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS LESS WORKED OVER...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
THE BIGGEST THREAT IN THE NORTH.  SEVERE HAIL LOOKS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

DID NOT TOUCH SECOND PERIOD AS TIMING OF DRYLINE STILL NOT CERTAIN.
MAY PROLONG SEVERE...HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES WITH FUTURE UPDATES IF NEEDED.

FCSTID = 19

.TUL...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY ALL ZONES.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY ALL ZONES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
920 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0740 AM    4 N HOMINY                OK    TORNADO
05/04/99   OSAGE                           SPOTTERS REPORTED A
                                           BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

0830 AM    1 S PANAMA                OK    .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   LE

0912 AM    5 W HOMINY                OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/04/99   OSAGE

0916 AM    5 W HOMINY                OK    .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   OSAGE

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ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMAAND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL 4 PM...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL 600 PM...

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT
TO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ACT AS SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
OF THE POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE...NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN THE POSSSIBILITY OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.  IN ADDITION...THE PROLONGED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...INCREASING
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
SHIFT TO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.
THE DRYLINE WILL BE EAST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MORNING THUS ENDING
THE SEVERE THREAT OVER ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS.  SPOTTER GROUPS
NOT ALREADY ACTIVATED SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION AT ANYTIME THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
222 PM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    8 S PRAIRIE GROVE         AR    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   WASHINGTON                      HOUSE DESTROYED AND
                                           NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0205 PM    SPRINGDALE                AR    1 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   WASHINGTON