Tornado Warning 34, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THE CONVECTION BE SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS?
WILL THERE BE SEVERE CONVECTION?

ETA MUCH SLOWER BRINGING DRY LINE INTO C/E OKLAHOMA
WITH AVN/NGM SIMILAR IN BRINGING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. NOGAPS/MM5
DATA SUPPORT NGM/AVN SOLUTION. ETA ALSO KEEPS UPPER LOW
CLOSED AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN OTHER MODELS AND WOULD KEEP
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ASSOC WITH SYSTEM IN NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH 48 HOURS. AM GOING WITH NGM/AVN/NOGAPS/MM5 SOLUTION
BRINGING DRYLINE EAST WITH INITIAL NEG TILT SHORT WAVE LATE
TONIGHT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COULD EASILY BE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF DRY LINE CONVECTION AND COULD
STILL YET SEE CONVECTION FIRE IN SW OKLAHOMA THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVE.

WILL WORD LIKELY POPS AS MAINLY LATE/AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
E OK WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. POPS HIT
VERY HARD TUESDAY WITH 90-100% AND MENTION OF SEVERE.
THREAT MAY BE GONE BY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ETA SOLN
LIRKING WILL DELAY ENDING PRECIP A BIT. WILL KEEP
LOW POPS IN NE ZONES TUE EVE AND A MENTION OF POSSIBLE
COLD POOL SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES ON WED. REST
FCST THROUGH SATURDAY LEFT DRY...FAVORING ECMWF SOLN
WITH RIDGING IN THE PLAINS.

FOLLOWED FWC TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSELY.

FCSTID = 13
TUL   63  76  52  75 /  70  90  10  10
FSM   62  76  51  75 /  50  90  30  20
MLC   63  77  51  76 /  60  90  10  10
BVO   63  76  52  70 /  70  90  10  20
FYV   62  73  51  70 /  50 100  40  20
IDB   64  79  53  77 /  60  90  10  10
BYV   62  73  51  70 /  50 100  40  20
MIO   63  74  51  70 /  50 100  30  20
MKO   63  77  51  76 /  60  90  10  10
F10   63  76  52  75 /  70  90  10  10
HHW   64  79  53  77 /  60  90  10  10

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  5 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS FAVOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

.DISCUSSION...
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
TORNADOES ARE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS THEY MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID-
EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

LATER TONIGHT...THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
SQUALL-LINE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IT TO REACH INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE
SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LINE.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND POSSIBLY BY
DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1023 PM CDT MON MAY 03 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1022 PM    SHAMROCK                  OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/03/99   CREEK                           DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1024 PM CDT MON MAY 03 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1022 PM    SHAMROCK                  OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/03/99   CREEK                           DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1024 PM CDT MON MAY 03 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1022 PM    SHAMROCK                  OK    1 INCH HAIL
05/03/99   CREEK                           DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 PM CDT MON MAY 03 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1054 PM    1 SW MILFAY               OK    TORNADO
05/03/99   CREEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1104 PM CDT MON MAY 03 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1102 PM    SAPULPA                   OK    .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/99   CREEK