Tornado Warning 50, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THERE BE CONVECTION AGAIN LATER TODAY?
WILL THE CONVECTION BE SEVERE?

QUESTION FOR THE SHORT TERM IS WHEN AND IF STORMS WILL REFIRE BACK
ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS MORNING.  FIRST BATCH OF STORMS NW
MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN OK COUNTIES AND INTO AR.  STORMS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ON OUT OF THOSE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
FOCUS WILL BE BACK IN THE WEST.  DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
WESTERN KS INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OK...THEN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE.  DRYLINE WILL EVENTUALLY SURGE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
UPPER SYSTEM OVER CO/NM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS.  EXPECT TO EVENTUALLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE
STORMS.

WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING
AND FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TILL FRONT/DRYLINE CLEARS THE
AREA.  EXPECT ANY WRAPAROUND PRECIP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO REST OF FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

FCSTID = 4
TUL   76  54  73  48 /  50  30  10  10
FSM   78  54  75  47 /  50  40  10  10
MLC   78  53  75  48 /  50  30  10  10
BVO   76  52  70  45 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   73  52  68  42 /  50  40  10  10
IDB   79  52  77  45 /  50  40  10  10
BYV   73  50  68  42 /  50  40  10  10
MIO   75  52  69  44 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   76  54  73  48 /  50  30  10  10
F10   76  54  73  48 /  50  30  10  10
HHW   79  52  77  45 /  50  40  10  10

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1158 PM    SAPULPA                   OK    TORNADO
05/03/99   CREEK                           TORNADO REPORTED ON
                                           U.S. HIGHWAY 66

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1212 AM    4 NE SAPULPA              OK    TORNADO
05/04/99   CREEK                           TORNADO REPORTED ON THE
                                           GROUND JUST EAST OF
                                           TURNER TURNPIKE GATE

1215 AM    WEST TULSA                OK    TORNADO
05/04/99   TULSA                           TORNADO REPORTED NEAR
                                           33RD WEST AVE AND 71ST
                                           STREET

1244 AM    2 N HOMINY                OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/04/99   OSAGE

0102 AM    WEST TULSA                OK    .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   TULSA                           NEAR I44 AND ARKANSAS
                                           RIVER

0132 AM    4 W HOMINY                OK    .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   OSAGE

0159 AM    1 S BOYNTON               OK    TORNADO
05/04/99   MUSKOGEE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 11 AM...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT TO FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE LOCATED OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ACT AS
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE POSITIONING OF THIS
FEATURE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE LIKELY THREAT BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN CURRENT WIND SHEAR PROFILES.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FORECASTED INSTABILITY INDICATE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. WIND PROFILES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL BE
EAST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE EVENING THUS ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT
OVER ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
POSSIBLY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
UNTIL 11 AM...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT TO FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE LOCATED OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ACT AS
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE POSITIONING OF THIS
FEATURE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE LIKELY THREAT BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN CURRENT WIND SHEAR PROFILES.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FORECASTED INSTABILITY INDICATE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. WIND PROFILES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL BE
EAST OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE EVENING THUS ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT
OVER ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
POSSIBLY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.