Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

FCST CONCERNS: SEVERE TSTM/HEAVY RAIN THREAT TNGT

RUNNING VERY BEHIND THIS AFTN WITH SVR WX...SO THIS WL BE BRIEF.

ONGOING STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACRS MUCH OF THE FA
TNGT AS UPR LVL JET MAX...AND SHRT WV PASSES THRU THE REGION. WITH
HVY RAINS EARLIER TODAY...FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL EXISTS. WL CONT
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TNGT.

APPEARS THAT ETA MODEL INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS MRNG AT 12Z...WITH
AVN A CLOSE SECOND. WL FOLLOW ALONG WITH THESE MODELS FOR THIS FCST.

SFC LOW OVR CNTRL KS IS FCST TO LIFT SLOLY NEWD OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS.
CDFNT/DRYLINE TRAILING SWD FM THE LOW IS FCST TO ENTER WRN PART OF
THE FA TNGT...MOVE INTO CNTRL AREAS BY WED MRNG AND THEN INTO SERN
MO BY WED AFTN. ASSOCD UPR SYS IS FCST TO CLOSE OFF TO THE NORTH OF
MO DURG THE FCST PD. SEVERAL SHRT WVS WL CONT TO ROTATE ARND THE UPR
SYS...KEEPING CHCS OF RAIN IN THE FCST.

GOOD DRY PUNCH FCST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TNGT AND EARLY ON
WED. THIS SHLD BRING A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY WED MRNG.

COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND AFTN HEATING WL LEAD TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN SCTD SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTN...
ESPECIALLY NRN COUNTIES. DECENT LOW LVL CAA NOTED BY WED NGT AND
THU...WL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS LATER PDS.

LTL TIME TO COMPARE TEMPS...SO WL USE A BLEND OF NGM AND AVN MOS.

STL...WL TRY AND SEND WORK ZNS BY 330 PM.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION STL...ICT AND LIT.

CCF (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY):

SGF EE 054/069 045/062 045 098333
JLN EE 053/068 046/061 046 096333
UNO TE 056/073 048/063 046 099533
VIH TE 057/071 044/058 043 099534

RICKARD

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT IS VALID FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AT MIDDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WAS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS MORNING...HAD STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE
REGION AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI...ARKANSAS BORDER.

ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ALSO EXISTS INTO TONIGHT. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED THE GROUND TO BECOME SATURATED. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL ONLY
INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

RICKARD