Tornado Warning 14, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

MAIN FCST PROBLEM: THUNDERSTORMS

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
TO THIS TIME. STORMS ARE CREEPING UP AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
IS RUNNING BETWEEN JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AND NORTHWARD INTO BARTON
AND ST.CLAIR COUNTIES. STORMS ARE LOSING SOME INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
INTO LOWER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE CWA...BUT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA AND PREVIOUS SPINNERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVING
IN...TORN WATCH FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS OKAY.

THE NGM AND AVN ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES THIS RUN...WHILE THE ETA DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH
OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT SFC
PRESSURE PATTERNS INDICATE THE ETA MAY BE OVERDOING THIS FEATURE A
BIT SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NGM/AVN FOR FORECAST TRENDS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
AND FILLING BY 48 HOURS. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

COULDNT SEE TOO MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE FROM MOS TEMPS FIRST THREE
PERIODS...BUT WILL STAY A CATEG OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CCF
SGF TE 078/057 070/048 17753
JLN TE 078/060 069/049 17753
UNO TE 075/058 071/049 17753
VIH TE 075/057 068/049 17753

TERRY

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT IS VALID FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AT MIDDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WAS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS MORNING...HAD STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE
REGION AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI...ARKANSAS BORDER.

ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ALSO EXISTS INTO TONIGHT. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED THE GROUND TO BECOME SATURATED. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL ONLY
INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

RICKARD