Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

MAIN FCST PROBLEM: THUNDERSTORMS

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
TO THIS TIME. STORMS ARE CREEPING UP AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
IS RUNNING BETWEEN JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AND NORTHWARD INTO BARTON
AND ST.CLAIR COUNTIES. STORMS ARE LOSING SOME INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
INTO LOWER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE CWA...BUT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA AND PREVIOUS SPINNERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVING
IN...TORN WATCH FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS OKAY.

THE NGM AND AVN ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES THIS RUN...WHILE THE ETA DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH
OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT SFC
PRESSURE PATTERNS INDICATE THE ETA MAY BE OVERDOING THIS FEATURE A
BIT SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NGM/AVN FOR FORECAST TRENDS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
AND FILLING BY 48 HOURS. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

COULDNT SEE TOO MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE FROM MOS TEMPS FIRST THREE
PERIODS...BUT WILL STAY A CATEG OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CCF
SGF TE 078/057 070/048 17753
JLN TE 078/060 069/049 17753
UNO TE 075/058 071/049 17753
VIH TE 075/057 068/049 17753

TERRY

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
530 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT IS VALID FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LEFT OVER FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATER TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE
LOCATED FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE EAST INTO MISSOURI SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
DURING THE EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN A PERIOD OF DRYING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING TO DEVELOP QUICKLY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND IN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
STATEMENTS ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

TERRY