Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

MAIN FCST PROBLEM: THUNDERSTORMS

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
TO THIS TIME. STORMS ARE CREEPING UP AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
IS RUNNING BETWEEN JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AND NORTHWARD INTO BARTON
AND ST.CLAIR COUNTIES. STORMS ARE LOSING SOME INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
INTO LOWER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE CWA...BUT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA AND PREVIOUS SPINNERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVING
IN...TORN WATCH FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS OKAY.

THE NGM AND AVN ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES THIS RUN...WHILE THE ETA DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH
OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT SFC
PRESSURE PATTERNS INDICATE THE ETA MAY BE OVERDOING THIS FEATURE A
BIT SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NGM/AVN FOR FORECAST TRENDS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
AND FILLING BY 48 HOURS. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

COULDNT SEE TOO MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE FROM MOS TEMPS FIRST THREE
PERIODS...BUT WILL STAY A CATEG OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CCF
SGF TE 078/057 070/048 17753
JLN TE 078/060 069/049 17753
UNO TE 075/058 071/049 17753
VIH TE 075/057 068/049 17753

TERRY

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>
103-041000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 500 AM
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS: BOURBON        CHEROKEE       CRAWFORD

IN MISSOURI:

BARRY          BARTON         BENTON         CAMDEN      CEDAR
CHRISTIAN      DADE           DALLAS         GREENE      HICKORY
JASPER         LAWRENCE       MCDONALD       MORGAN      NEWTON
POLK           ST. CLAIR      STONE          VERNON

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SPRINGFIELD...JOPLIN...CAMDENTON...FORT SCOTT
...NEVADA AND PITTSBURG.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
MONDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUED. SOME OF THE STORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAD PRODUCED
TORNADOES MONDAY EVENING.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  TAKE TIME NOW TO THINK ABOUT
WHAT YOU WOULD DO TO PROTECT YOURSELF IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED
FOR YOUR AREA.  REMEMBER...ELECTRICAL POWER AND OTHER SERVICES MAY BE
INTERRUPTED DURING SEVERE STORMS.

SUTTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1258 AM    COLUMBUS                  KS    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/04/99   CHEROKEE

0128 AM    7 ENE COLUMBUS            KS    67 MPH TSTM GUST
05/04/99   CHEROKEE

SUTTON