Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO TEXAS. WORST STORM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
CITY AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA TO NORTH TEXAS AS THE CAUSE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURGE OF 70+ DEWPOINTS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH
60+ DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS OMAHA NEBRASKA.

UNMODIFIED 00Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING WAS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED
INDEX OF -7 AND CAPE OF 1900 J/KG. SLIGHT CAPPING INVERSION ALSO
NOTED. MODIFYING THE SURFACE PARAMETERS FOR JOPLIN AND CHANUTE ERASED
THE CAP AND PRODUCED CAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. EXPECT SOME
STABILIZATION WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT AIRMASS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
TROUBLE SUPPORTING SEVERE CONVECTION WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES.

MOVEMENT OF STORMS IN WICHITA AND OKLAHOMA CITY AREAS NORTH
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ARRIVAL IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOMEWHAT. DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO TINKER WITH CURRENT THINKING IN
ZONES...BUT WILL CLEAN THEM UP BY REMOVING THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
WORDING.

SUTTON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
810 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999

THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT IS VALID FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SOUTH TEXAS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME
WESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SLIGHTLY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 60S...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF A NEVADA TO
CARTHAGE AND PINEVILLE LINE ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT AND
5 AM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH THE WIND PROFILE IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOS.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS . AGAIN...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TUESDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A PERIOD OF DRYING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING TO DEVELOP QUICKLY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND IN
EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS
ON THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

SUTTON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>
103-041000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 500 AM
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS: BOURBON        CHEROKEE       CRAWFORD

IN MISSOURI:

BARRY          BARTON         BENTON         CAMDEN      CEDAR
CHRISTIAN      DADE           DALLAS         GREENE      HICKORY
JASPER         LAWRENCE       MCDONALD       MORGAN      NEWTON
POLK           ST. CLAIR      STONE          VERNON

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SPRINGFIELD...JOPLIN...CAMDENTON...FORT SCOTT
...NEVADA AND PITTSBURG.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
MONDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUED. SOME OF THE STORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAD PRODUCED
TORNADOES MONDAY EVENING.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  TAKE TIME NOW TO THINK ABOUT
WHAT YOU WOULD DO TO PROTECT YOURSELF IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED
FOR YOUR AREA.  REMEMBER...ELECTRICAL POWER AND OTHER SERVICES MAY BE
INTERRUPTED DURING SEVERE STORMS.

SUTTON