Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
210 PM CDT THU APR 29 1999

SFC BOUNDARY AND LOW CLOUDS ARE RETARDING HEATING ACROSS MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE PECOS TODAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER PRESENTLY BEGINNING
TO ERODE NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE PECOS SFC TEMPS ARE MUCH
HIGHER...BUT MOISTURE LEVELS ARE A BIT LOWER...TOO. I FEEL THAT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TODAY WOULD BE AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
WOULD ENCOUNTER CAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 2000-2500+ J/KG.
HODOGRAPH ALSO LOOKING MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ROTATING STORMS TONIGHT. AS FOR TOMORROW...PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL HANING AROUND OVER NV/AZ REGION WITH A STRONGER SWLY FLO
ALOFT. WIND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW...WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. ON TOP OF ALL THIS...MODELS
KICK OUT A SHORTWAVE FROM THE LOW AND PROG IT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WE DO HAVE
SOME FACTORS TODAY THAT MAY COUNT AGAINST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
CONVECTION...I SEE LITTLE IF ANY REASON TO DOUBT THE FORMATION OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TOMORROW...AND THE MAF CWA COULD EVEN SEE A
TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKING INTO SATURDAY...UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST. WILL KEEP QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MAF 60/79/56/78 4354
CNM 55/80/51/78 3444
MRF 45/75/47/73 2232
P07 57/81/60/79 4343

DJK