Tornado Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
403 AM CDT FRI APR 30 1999

DEEP SE-S FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS W TX/SE NM HAS PULLED HIGH THETA-E AIR
NWD WITH DRYLINE BACKED UP TO THE MTNS. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
ACROSS CWA ATTM AS SHRTWV TROF LIFTS NE...HOWEVER CWA REMAINS IN
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFLUENT PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW OVER SWRN USA. LOW
LEVEL DATA (85H, 300K, ETC) INDICATES FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ONGOING. GENERAL LULL IN CONVECTION ATTM
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN NEXT SHRTWV TROF MOVES
INTO SRN NM. WITH ARRIVAL OF SHRTWV ENERGY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP W AND MOVE NE ACROSS SE NM/W-NW PB AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE
PLACED HIGHEST POPS THERE. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS WITH FRONT HAVE WORDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.
EDDY/LEA COUNTIES SEEM TO BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAIN AND WOULD
CONSIDER FFA. SHRTWV TROF/S EXPECTED TONIGHT SO HAVE MAINTAINED
GENERALLY SCATTERED POPS TONIGHT. MODELS TRYING TO LIFT UPPER LOW OUT
OF THE SW SATURDAY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THOUGH AS
TENDENCIES ARE TO BRING CLOSED SYSTEMS OUT TOO EARLY. AT ANY RATE
WHEN SYSTEM DOES COME OUT WILL LIKELY BE AN INTERESTING EVENT WITH
SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPS PER CLOUD COVER
AND E-SE SURFACE FLOW.

MAF 73/56/76/56  40/50/50
CNM 74/56/76/56  70/70/50
MRF 77/48/76/47  30/20/20
P07 78/61/78/58  30/30/40

GPM

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-010500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
534 AM CDT (434 AM MDT) FRI APR 30 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL EJECT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY EAST...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
WILL STAY ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN WITH A DRYLINE REMAINING BACKED UP AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE EXTREME
SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...WHILE BETTER HEATING IS
EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE...ROUGHLY WEST OF A SEMINOLE-
ANDREWS-MIDLAND-SANDERSON LINE.  A JET STREAK PUNCHING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
...WILL AID LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.  THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE TRANS PECOS IN WEST TEXAS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY
FRONT ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND HELP TO
FUEL ANY NEW OR PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS IN WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN.  WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WEAK...THEREFORE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.

AKL

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-010000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1058 AM CDT (958 AM MDT) FRI APR 30 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL EJECT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TODAY.  MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A ROSWELL...
MIDLAND...TO WACO LINE THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM
THE FRONT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THESE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LET SUNSHINE TO WARM THE SURFACE OF THE
EARTH AND FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.  A JET STREAK PUNCHING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...WILL AID LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.  THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
STATIONARY FRONT ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.  STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO PERMIAN BASIN LATER TODAY.

AS WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WEAK...
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  HOWEVER...WITH SOME TURNING OF
THE WINDS...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.