Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1139 AM CDT FRI APR 30 1999

ACTIVE MORNING IN THE MAF CWA FOR CONVECTION AND UNFORTUNATELY I DO
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH TIME TO ELABORATE ON THE SITUATION. RATHER
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NEARLY NW-SE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MAF
CWA...AND UPPER LOW TO THE W SHOULD KICK A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRESENTLY LAYING ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MAF CWA WILL
BE A FOCAL POINT TODAY FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE SE NM...WHERE
TRAINING CELLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE
SHORT TERM. LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. WIND SHEAR PROFILES VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY INHIBIT THE THREAT OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. STILL...WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND IMPRESSIVE
HODOGRAPH...I CANNOT RULE OUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED WORKZONES TO TWEAK SOME TEMPS AND POPS...AND
TO INCLUDE A SOON TO BE RELEASED FFA.

DJK

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-010000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1058 AM CDT (958 AM MDT) FRI APR 30 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL EJECT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TODAY.  MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A ROSWELL...
MIDLAND...TO WACO LINE THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM
THE FRONT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THESE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LET SUNSHINE TO WARM THE SURFACE OF THE
EARTH AND FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.  A JET STREAK PUNCHING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...WILL AID LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.  THE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
STATIONARY FRONT ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.  STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO PERMIAN BASIN LATER TODAY.

AS WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WEAK...
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  HOWEVER...WITH SOME TURNING OF
THE WINDS...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING AND AFTER MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.