Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN AUG 17 1997

MSTR CONTG TO INCR ACRS CWFA...SLY FLOW HAS SET IN ONCE AGN. STG
DEWPTS NR MID 60S...1.52 PW MIGHTY HEFTY. EVEN TOO MUCH RIGHT NOW
AS CLD COVER CONTS TO SPREAD THRU THE AREA...WITH SOME MID/UPR
LVL TROPICAL MSTR STREAMING INTO US FROM ACRS BAJA AS WELL (FROM
STRENGTHENING TD GETTING CAUGHT UP IN FLOW). AT LEAST A DELAY IN
HEATING THIS MRNG...BUT I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH BRKS BY THIS AFTN
TO CATCH UP A BIT AND REACH CONVECTIVE LVLS...LWR 90S AROUND TUS
SHOULD DO IT WITH HELP DISCUSSED BELOW. WELL NEED SOME SUN TO
REALLY REACH TDAS STRONG POTENTIAL.

UPR LOW OFF SRN CA CST HASNT MADE AS MUCH PROGRESS EWD...AND MAY
BE A LTL TOO FAR W FOR MUCH OF OUR PURPOSES TO BEGIN WITH. IMPLS
BURIED IN SLY FLOW STREAMING INTO US NOW THOUGH...THAT SHOULD
HELP. ALREADY SEEING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS. SO MUCH MSTR THAT IF WE
FIRE TDA FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN WITH VERY WET STORMS. 12Z
TUS ROAB HAS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR ALL KINDS OF STUFF. A FEW
1ST PD ADJUSTMENTS ERYR (MORE LATER A STG POSSIBILITY)...GOING TO
RIDE HEAVILY WORDED FCST FOR NOW WITH EXPECTATIONS OF THINGS TO
COME. GETTING THAT SCARED SMALL FORREST CREATURE FEELING GOING
AGN. TUS 443. MEYER

TUS...NONE

AZZ019-026>030-172300-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1145 AM MST SUN AUG 17 1997...THIS PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY...

                AREAL    PROBABILITY   RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
              COVERAGE    OF SEVERE     1.00       2.00    MOTION

COCHISE          50          50          70         30      N 10
GRAHAM           50          50          70         25      N 10
GREENLEE         70          30          60          5      N 10
TUCSON/ERN PIMA  50          50          70         30      N 10
TOHONO OODHAM   40          60          60         30      N 10
WESTERN PIMA     30          60          40         10      N 10
SOUTHEAST PINAL  50          60          70         30      N 10
SANTA CRUZ       50          50          70         25      N 10

SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVES INLAND. CLOUD COVER WITH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS WILL DELAY SOME DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE
TO THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                  THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                  LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                  PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                  ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                  LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...
VALID TIME IS FROM 12 NOON TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE

THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES.

END/MEYER