Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE ALABAMA
243 PM CDT WED MAY 28 1997

FA UNDERGOING SQUEEZE PLAY WITH SNAKING FNT TO W AND E WITH RDG BLDG
ACRS CTRL PLAINS AND ERN STATES. S OF FNT...ANOTHER ACTIVE LATE
AFTN/EVE SHAPING UP AS LATEST MODIFIED SOUDINGS INDICATE LIS AOB -6
AND CAPES OVR 3K J/KG GIVEN TMAX AT 86/89.  COUPLE THIS WITH FCST MID
LVL S/W THERMAL TROF PASSING ACRS NRN GULF COAST AND AVBL
MOISTURE...TSTMS GOOD BET SOME STG/SVR.  88D CONCURS AS STMS DVLPG
ACRS SRN MS AND WL BEGIN AFFECTING CWA SHORTLY.  ACRS ERN
CWA...BACKDOOR CD FNT ALLOWING BETTER STABILITY TO FILTER IN SO SHUD
KEEP A LID ON CNVTV ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND
PSBLY EVE WITH BETTER INSTABILTY IN WM SECTOR TO THE W. A
COMPLICATING WEATHER PATTERN SHAPES UP IN SRN STREAM AS LOW/MID LVL
LOW CUTS OFF OVR WRN GULF...OFF SE TX COAST AS MID NATION UPR LOW
GRADUALLY PUSHES N INTO UPR MID WEST.  THIS WL HANG FNTL BNDRY UP IN
RGN AND PRBLM THIS PD IS HOW FAR S...FNT WL GET B4 STALLING AND WHAT
BACKDOOR FNT DOES...WHICH POSES AN OBSTACLE TO UPSTREAM BNDRY.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO BRING UP FOR CONSIDERATION IS SWIRL OVR CTRL GULF
WHICH MAY BE THE LO THAT MODELS WANT TO CUT OFF OVR WRN GULF. AT THIS
POINT...WL KEEP HIER POPS ACRS SE MS AND SW AL...TAPERING ACRS ERN
CWA WHERE BETTER STABILITY EXISTS OVERNITE. CONT CHC POPS FOR THU
AFTN WITH FNT PROVIDING FOCUS. LOLVL SRLY FLOW WL AID IN INSTABILITY
AND WARMTH THRU PD.

FOR OFFSHORE INTERESTS...RDG OF HIGH TO PRESSURE OVR ERN
STATES...SHUD KEEP ONSHORE FETCH GOING THRU THU BLO SCA CRITERIA.
SEAS AOB 3 FT XPCTD.

MOB 70/86/68/85 5534    PNS 70/86/70/85 5534
DTS 71/85/68/85 3423    EVR 67/84/67/85 3423 10

ALZ051>64-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-290600-

AREAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE ALABAMA
1105 AM CDT WED MAY 28 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA INTO THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SUMMERTIME WARMTH IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TO PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.   THIS HEATING WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PASSAGE OF UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES...SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.  AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A LINE OF
STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.  FURTHER TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO AN AREA
FROM SOUTHEAST OF I-65 FROM LUVERNE TO ANDALUSIA.  THUS A BIT MORE
STABILITY HERE WILL KEEP STORMS HIT AND MISS.

THE SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IS MONITORING DEVELOPING STORMS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA.  STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER UPDATES ON SEVERE WEATHER BOXES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THUS...ACTIVATION OF NORTHERN GULF COAST STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALZ051>64-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-290600-

AREAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE ALABAMA
1105 AM CDT WED MAY 28 1997

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA INTO THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SUMMERTIME WARMTH IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TO PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.   THIS HEATING WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PASSAGE OF UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES...SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.  AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A LINE OF
STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.  FURTHER TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO AN AREA
FROM SOUTHEAST OF I-65 FROM LUVERNE TO ANDALUSIA.  THUS A BIT MORE
STABILITY HERE WILL KEEP STORMS HIT AND MISS.

THE SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IS MONITORING DEVELOPING STORMS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA. N STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER UPDATES ON SEVERE WEATHER BOXES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THUS...ACTIVATION OF NORTHERN GULF COAST STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.