Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEMPS IN CCF...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 PM MDT (847 PM CDT) WED JUN 7 1995

DISCUSSION:  SOME OF THE STMS DVLPG E OF THE FNT RANGE OF CO COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE EXTRM WRN COUNTIES OF NW KS LTR THIS EVE...ESP IF
THE LOW LVL JET INTENSIFIES DURG THIS TM.  SO...FEEL IT WOULD BE
SAFE TO INCR POPS THERE TO 30 PCT TO CVR THIS SITUATION.

OTRW...I HV SOME CONCERNS ABT THE SECOND FNT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FM
JUST S OF A CHEYENNE WY...SIDNEY NE...ALLIANCE NE LN.  ETA...HAS THE
FNT MOVING INTO THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BY 12Z...WHILE THE NGM
ONLY ADVANCES IT TWD THE KS/NE BDR.  SINCE...THIS IS MY 1ST NGT IN
EVE ROTATION AFT 3 DAY BREAK...I SOUGHT GUIDANCE FM THE PMDSPD FOR
THE MODEL OF PREFERENCE AND GOT LTL HELP.  SINCE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID
NOT MENTION THIS FEATURE...BELIEVE WE SHOULD CONSIDER AT LEAST THE
ETA/NGM BLEND IF NOT THE ETA BY ITSELF...GVN MODEL BIASES AND THE
LARGE PRESSURE GRAD N OF THE FNT.

IN ANY EVENT...FEEL SFC WNDS MAY BE MORE EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
TNGT OVR THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW CLDCVR AND
PATCHY FOG BY DAYBREAK.  GVN SFC DWPNTS IN THE LWR 60S OVR MST OF NW
KS...OVNGT LOWS SHOULD BE RAISED ONE CAT.

HI TEMPS ON THU COULD ALSO BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY THIS COOLER
AIR MASS OVR MUCH OF THE CWA.

GLD 57/74 33  HLC 61/76 23
CBK 58/74 33  MCK 57/68 45
TRB 59/77 33  5C0 56/71 44

VJN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-080930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
927 PM MDT (1027 PM CDT) WED JUN 7 1995

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL 3 AM MDT (4 AM CDT)...

THE SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MISSOURI HAS ISSUED
A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

VJN /LEJ