Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 AM MDT (315 AM CDT) THU JUN 8 1995

FIRST PERIOD PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPS. SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM WILL BE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINS.

PREFER ETA SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW WITH UPPER
LEVEL SOLUTIONS...BASED ON PAST COUPLE OF DAYS PERFORMANCE AND
DISCUSSION ON PMDSPD.  MOST WORRISOME FEATURE IS GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT 850 MB BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMP...IMPLYING
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  500 MB RIDGE IS NEGATIVELY TILTED DOWNSTREAM...AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER CWA.  ADD LARGE VORTICITY CENTER
SWINGING TOWARD CWA...BRINGING DIFFERENTIAL PVA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  ADD SURFACE FRONT TO THE MIX AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TOWARD CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND I SMELL TROUBLE.

NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT DETAILS DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
AREA...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND CENTRAL
CWA...COOLER TEMPS IN NORTH.  WILL DOWNPLAY DAYTIME GUIDANCE
POPS...BUT GO ABOVE THEM FOR SECOND PERIOD.

GLD 71/53 36  HLC 77/57 35
CBK 72/54 36  MCK 74/53 36
TRB 74/54 34  5C0 69/50 46

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COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-081505-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT (400 AM CDT) THU JUN 8 1995

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 572 FOR THE EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BORDER
COUNTIES AND NORTHWEST KANSAS HAS EXPIRED...
...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 577 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT (10 AM
CDT) FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9 AM MDT (10 AM CDT) FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY...AND WICHITA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

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